Saturday, August 09, 2014

Is Jeter the best shortstop ever?

Derek Jeter today passed Honus Wagner (3,431 to 3,430) to put himself sixth on the all-time hits list, and become the leader for hits at that position all-time. His career stats, over 20 years:

Overall (position all-time)
Games: 2,704 (28th)
At Bats: 11,031 (12,423 plate appearances) – (7th)
Lifetime Average: .311 (OBP: 379, SLG: 442, OPS: .821, OPS+: 116) – (70th)
Runs: 1,914 (10th)
Hits: 3,431 (6th)
Doubles: 537 (35th)
Triples: 66 (433rd)
Home Runs: 259 (191st)
RBIs: 1,291 (116th)
BB: 1,076 (85th)
Fielding Pct: .976 (15th)

Post Season (16 Years)
Games: 158
At Bats: 650 (734 plate appearances)
Lifetime Average: .308 (OBP: 374, SLG: 465, OPS: 838)
Runs: 111
Hits: 200
Home Runs: 20
RBIs: 161
BB: 66
SO: 135
WAA: 31.8
RAR: 750
WAR: 72.5

Looking specifically at shortstops, arguably the most taxing position on the field (beside the catcher), Jeter is third in home runs (behind Ripken and Tejada), first in hits (ahead of Wagner, Ripken, Yount and Visquel), first in runs, fifth in games played (behind Ripken, Vizquel, Yount and Wagner), fifth in batting average (behind Wagner, Vaughan, Garciappara and Sewell), seventh in RBIs, fifth in walks and first in strikeouts (to be fair), and fifth in OPS. His fielding percentage is up there with the best ever and he was an exceptional post-season player and team captain for many years now. As he continues his farewell tour, the question becomes whether he will go down as the greatest ever?

The most obvious challenger is Honus Wagner, one of the greatest hitters of all times. His lifetime average of .358 trails only the great Ty Cobb (.367), he had only one less hit than Jeter over his 21-year career, with 600 less at bats, more doubles (640 versus 537), substantially more triples (252 versus 66), way more RBIs (1,762 vs. 1,291), far fewer strikeouts (327 vs. 1,818), twice as many stolen bases (722 vs. 356) and a better OPS (.858 vs. .821). In regards to fielding, his overall percentage was lower at .947, but his modern stats are better as well: WAA: (92.0 vs. 31.8), RAR (1238 vs. 750) and WAR (131 vs. 72.8). That last stat, of wins against replacement, puts Wagner tenth and Jeter a distant 83rd. However, if we compare their 162-game averages, the numbers look closer:

Jeter: 118 runs, 207 hits, 53 extra base hits, 79 RBIs, 22 steals, .313 (.831 OPS)
Wagner: 101 runs, 198 hits, 58 ebhs, 100 RBIs, 42 steals, .328 (.858 OPS)

One big difference between the two, beside Jeter arguably being a better fielder, is that Wagner only got to play in 15 postseason games (with only the world series played during his career) and his number were way down in those games (one title to his name). But Wagner is considered one of the greatest hitters of all times and I think few would put Jeter in that category.

A few other challengers to the thrown include Ozzie Smith (though his .262 average, average of two homers and 50 RBIs a year and one World Series ring makes him more interesting as the best defensive shortstop), Cal Ripken (who hit more homers and, obviously, played in more games but lacks falls below in many of the other batting categories) and Rodriguez and Ernie Banks played less than 50 percent of their games at that position (in fact, Wagner played over 30 percent at other positions himself).

Looking specifically at a favored stat these days, here are the top 10 shortstops in career Wins Against Replacement (from two sources, courtesy of Bleacher Report):

RANK
bWAR
SHORTSTOP
fWAR
SHORTSTOP
1
119.8
Honus Wagner
127.2
Honus Wagner
2
95.5
Cal Ripken Jr.
92.5
Cal Ripken Jr.
3
77.0
Robin Yount
73.8
Derek Jeter
4
76.5
Ozzie Smith
72.7
Luke Appling
5
74.4
Luke Appling
72.6
Arky Vaughan
6
73.0
Arky Vaughan
67.7
Barry Larkin
7
71.5
Derek Jeter
67.6
Ozzie Smith
8
70.3
Alan Trammell
66.6
Joe Cronin
9
70.3
Barry Larkin
66.5
Robin Yount
10
66.3
Joe Cronin
64.5
Lou Boudreau
11
66.2
Pee Wee Reese
63.7
Alan Trammell
12
63.1
Lou Boudreau
61.3
Pee Wee Reese
13
56.9
Bobby Wallace
55.5
Joe Tinker
14
55.5
Luis Aparicio
49.2
Dave Bancroft
15
53.7
Joe Sewell
49.1
Luis Aparicio/Bobby Wallace (tie)

Jeter is third according to FanGraphs, but only seventh in Baseball Reference. And as you might also notice, Wagner is first on both lists. Thus it appears Wagner is the only legitimate contender to keep his place as the best shortstop of all time. Comparing players in different eras is, of course, wrought with problems, but it might be fair to say that Wagner played his entire career during the “dead ball” era and still hit for average, drove in more runs, struck out far less and stole bases at a substantially better level. Jeter won more titles (five versus one) and might be a marginally better fielder, but baseball is never won by one player alone.


And so, while Jeter is a close second, I still have Honus Wagner (and his $1 million baseball card) as the greatest shortstop of all time.

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