Sunday, April 29, 2012

Arsenal Draw Again

Trips to the Brittania have often been contentious (none more than the Shawcross-Ramsey leg break two years ago) and rarely lucrative. And that trend continued yesterday, as Arsenal did pull back to 1-1 six minutes after giving up an early goal to Peter Crouch, but were unable to get the winner. It was another relatively stale performance and another game we failed to win without Arteta (something we have failed to do all year). RvP did get off the snide and scored a goal in open play, on a lovely cross from Rosicky. But defensive sloppiness early led to the opener, as Sagna failed to get out on the wing to contest the cross from Etherington and Vermaelen was unable to clear the ball in front of the much taller Crouchy. One has to ask why Chamberlain wasn't given the start with Walcott out for the final three games. And many opportunities went wanting in the first half, though Begovic had several fine saves. 

The dropped points were particularly disappointing as Newcastle had been mauled by the surging Wigan 4-0 and we could have thus all but wrapped up third place for the season. Now we probably have to win our final two games to secure third and ensure that we are playing in the champions league next year (given that Chelsea could win the tournament this year if they beat Bayern Munich in the final) and will take the "fourth" spot if they don't grab it themselves). There is a possibility Chelsea will do just that though, and that would mean we are in if we stay in the top four. Our next match is against Norwich at the Emirates, who have little to play for except pride, and then we finish against mid-table West Brom to close out the campaign. We should win both and ensure that third spot, but nothing is guaranteed with a squad that has now lost to QPR and Wigan and drawn with Chelsea and Stoke, while beating Man City and the bottom dwelling Wolves in between. After a nice run of form, one wonders where the confidence and quality have gone, but there do seem to be a lot of tired legs and a general lack of creativity and solid defense (particularly early in contests). 

A few takeaways from the game: 1. We need to have more defensive discipline and to get our fullbacks to come out and contest crosses. This has been a problem too often this year and cost us big today. I think the recent form reaffirms our need for another centre back and maybe fullback. We could cover both by signing Vertonghen. 2. We need more creativity in the middle. We are clearly looking and hopefully a good choice will emerge. Ramsey has improved a little in the past two games, but he just doesn't control the middle or provide the service that Arteta does. 3. I think we also have to think about the wings. Yes we have Walcott and Chamberlain (who might be better employed in the hole behind the striker), and appear to have signed Podolski, but maybe need someone more prolific than Gervinho and Benayoun (who looks set to move on). 4. It was good to see Diaby in again, though he doesn't have the weight of his passes down yet. Healthy, he could be a nice option to give rest to Arteta and any other signings. 5. There is no question that we are building too slowly and allowing teams to get behind us and make it very difficult to score. Chelsea's epic hold with 10 men against Barca points to a similar problem the Catalan team has had a few times this year. 

And one has to mention the week of football beyond the world of Arsenal. Chelsea looked set to be eliminated after John Terry got sent off for a silly foul and Barca scored twice to make it 2-0. And then right before half time, Messi was dispossessed and Frank Lapard sent a beautiful pass toward the wing that was picked up by Ramires, who cooly chipped over the terrible Valdez. Going into the locker room, Barca must have felt deflated but confident they could get the goal that would restore their tie lead. But it never came, after Messi missed an early second half penalty (reaffirming some people's fear that he lacks big game quality -- which is of course ridiculous, given all the silverware he's won with Barca in the past few years). The draw, which saw Chelsea go through on aggregate, together with the 2-1 home loss in El Classico last weekend, appeared to be the final straw in a decision Guardiola might have made long ago -- to walk away from the plumbest job in the world. The announcement came two days later and leaves some questions about the future -- though some summer signings should restore the form that still included three pieces of silverware since last summer. One thing that seems clear to me is that Valdez needs competition for the starting job; and they probably need to fortify the backline and maybe bring in a striker that can provide a "plan b." Real Madrid met a similar fate when they too blew a 2-0 lead that would have seen them through after a foul in the box by Pepe led to a penalty and aggregate tie. Madrid looked likely to score, but as the two teams moved toward extra time, they both seemed to tire and were intent on not giving up the late goal. The extra 30 minutes lacked real quality and it thus came down to penalties -- with Ronaldo (for the first time in his last 25 penalties), Kaka and Ramires all failing to put it in the net. Mourinho must be disappointed, having smelled his third trophy the second Torres put in the goal that ended any Barca hope in stoppage time. Now we have a Bayern Chelsea final that few non-fans of either team will be terribly excited to see -- given the lost opportunity for one last el classico this season. Barca can still garner one last prize for Guardiola as they play the Copa del Rey final later in May. Chelsea's victory was a real achievement but one wonders if they can keep the Dimateo magic going against an in form Bayern Munich who will be playing on home turf to make up for the finals loss to Inter two short years ago. 

In any case, much is still up in the air as the season closes. Who will win the UCL (I guess I will tepidly root for Chelsea, unless the Arsenal form continues to fail to impress)? Who will win the EPL -- though we will know a lot more tomorrow? I think Man City will pull off the win, maybe 2-1 or 3-2, but that is wishful thinking as much as an informed opinion. Though Wolves are out and Blackburn looks soon to follow, who will be the third team relegated this year? I think QPR might be the third to fall (my odds on favorite), though Aston Villa is still not safe, Bolton currently sits in that spot and Wigan is not completely safe yet.  And who will win the FA Cup, though given recent form one would be hard pressed to pick Liverpool over Chelsea. Go Gunners!

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