Monday, January 23, 2012

Gingrich Forges Ahead

Well as is often the case in making predictions, some including me have apparently been premature in announcing the moribund fate of a Gingrich presidential run. After the surprisingly strong victory in South Carolina, Gingrich now leads in Florida and is building momentum to become the de facto right-wing candidate for the Presidential nomination contrasting with the slick, well-funded campaign of Romney. The reality appears to be that bold face lying and suspect conservative bonafides can undermine the "most likely to win" argument Romney has been cultivating. In the spectacle society it is plausible to argue that "authenticity" has become the key attribute voters are looking for, at least on the right. And the Bain Capital backs story might well become the bane of Romney's latest effort to secure the nomination.

What is interesting to contemplate is how Gingrich emerges as the "authentic" conservative candidate. For all the other valid critiques that have been leveled against the architect of the conservative Congressional takeover and the "Contract with America," Gingrich neither fits snugly into the conservative veil. He is twice divorced, is known to have cheated on at least one of his previous wives, refuses to blindly follow conservative orthodoxy and, it can be argued, often argues for making government better rather than relentlessly seeking to undermine it. So how did he win? Well he is running against one of the most disingenuous, flip flopping candidates in history (see post on flip-flopping below) and one whose business background might actually work against him in the new conservative populism that might still champion markets over government, but might not want a president that once destroyed companies and fired workers. They might want a president who actually stands behind what he says and doesn't have a background implementing liberal (now known as "socialist" of course) policies. But what does Gingrich stand for on the positive side of the equation? Well, as Washington Monthly columnist Steve Benen argued yesterday (Washington Montly), he is essentially hitting all of the key conservative buttons of the moment. He is playing the victim card of Limbaugh and Beck, condemning the "liberal" media and adding a nice dose of racism to the mix. And he is winning the debates which, like Gore 12 years ago, Romney assumed were his domain. 

One wonders if Gingrich can actually make it through the next few weeks without saying something so stupid he loses that base he appears to have recovered and, on a more positive note, whether he has any realistic chance of taking down Obama. My great hope is that the remaining candidates continue to batter each other in pursuit of the prize and leave the eventual candidate wounded beyond repair. As is often the case in American politics though, the election could very well come down to those independents who make up their minds at the last second based on the economic news and their visceral response to the candidate. And I'm rather sanguine that Newt loses on those fronts. Of course, I thought the same of Bush 11 years ago ...

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