Thursday, October 13, 2016

The Extraordinary Gender Gap in the Electorate

Hillary Clinton is now leading Donald Trump by 5 to 11 points, depending on the poll you reference, and many have her with at least an 80 percent chance of winning, up from around 52 percent before the first debate (538). One demographic that continues to support the sexist, racist, xenophobe, however, is men (The Atlantic). This is made more troubling by the recently released tape of his admission of his right as a celebrity to engage in sexual assault, no matter what Republican Senator Sessions thinks, alongside the even more recent release of information that indicates that Trump might be doing more than simply bragging about theoretical acts (HuffPost).

Women support Clinton by an astounding 33 points (61 to 28 percent) while Trump leads among men by 11 points (48 to 37). What this means in a theoretical election where only one gender can vote is that Clinton would win 458 to 80 electoral votes with only women voting and Trump would win 350 to 188 if only men were in the booths. Given that only the latter situation has ever existed, that should give us pause. Many men are clearly still trapped in the ressentiment brought on by the successes of the feminist movement, along with similar resentment for the rather marginal successes of the Civil Rights Movement and immigrant populations from Central and South America. Trapped in a discourse that places the blame for the declining income and quality of life of working and middle class whites on the advances of other groups, Trump is still capitalizing on a political strategy that has reaped benefits at least as far back as Nixon, though most notably with Reagan.

See the charts below for a visual representation of the alarming gender gap in this election and what it might mean for the future of American politics, at least in the short to medium term.

No comments: