Arsene Wenger and his Arsenal side are on the brink of
letting a once promising season collapse in despair. After beating Leicester
City 2-1 on February 14, they have gone on a run of only one win in seven
games. If we look further back, they have won only 4 of their last 14 matches
and only two of their last eight at the Emirates (along with two draws and four
losses). In fact, they have lost their last three at home and are winless in
their last four (the “best” result over that period was the 0-0 draw with
Hull). Including the 4-0 midweek FA Cup victory over Hull in the replay,
Arsenals form has looked like this: LWDLLLDW. It is an extraordinary turn of
events after the last second header by Welbeck drew them back within two points
of Leicester heading into what looked like a routine visit from Championship
side Hull in the FA Cup. But starting with that match, Arsenal has reverted to
their old form, making mistakes on the defensive end, missing clear cut chances
and seeming completely discombobulated overall.
Yesterday they had a good chance to right the ship, keeping
hopes of silverware for a third straight season with a victory over a Watford
team that has slipped from his turn-of-the-year form. Instead they blew another
game they largely dominated, with 71 percent of possession, 20 to 7 shots (4 to
2 on target) and even more fouls (8 to 6). But all that matters in the end is
goals and after Giroud and Walcott finally came alive after months of
struggling, with a brace each in a 4-0 win over Hull on Wednesday), the chances
again went wanting, as they have so often this season. Elneny had two in the
first half, one with the goal gaping from 12 yards out, but skied both. Gibbs
had an open header he sent high, Giroud missed a decent opportunity, Sanchez wasted
a couple of half-chances and, after scoring an 88th minute goal that
gave the Gunners hope, Welbeck missed an absolute sitter from four yards out,
with only the bar to beat. Watford, on the other hand, took their chances,
scoring on their only two on-target shots of the afternoon. It started with the
misfiring Ighalo in the 50th minute, finding space after a throw in,
before cutting around a too-tight Gabriel and rifling it past Ospina. The lead
was doubled in the 63rd, when the Gunners defense failed to cover
the onrushing Guedioura, who absolutely blasted it past Ospina and into the
upper right corner of the net.
Welbeck, Walcott and Iwobi came on a few minutes later and
the Gunners suddenly looked lively, but the scorned chances meant they were out
of the FA Cup and probably out of winning any silverware this season. It was a
well-played game by Watford, who sat back, absorbed pressure, cut off passing
lanes around the box and then exploded on the counter, but Arsenal still
dominated the game and really should have won it in the end. That they didn’t,
speaks volumes to the problems with the team at present and the calls for
Wenger to finally cede the reigns of the club after 20 years in charge, with
the last 10 largely assessed as underachieving.
Three thoughts on the game:
1.
Wenger
Gets It Wrong Again: Wenger started the game with an almost full-strength
side, but it was the changes that left many, including me, scratching our
heads. Calum Chambers is a player for the future, I still believe, but why
throw him in over Bellerin in a game that is so important to Arsenal’s flagging
season. And in the same regard, why recall Gibbs when Monreal has made the
position his own. Both of those choices contributed to the two goals, along
with the continued poor play of Gabriel, who seems to make at least two
mistakes every time he is on the pitch.
2.
Wenger’s
Final Stand? Another run to an FA Cup crown might well have staved off the
inevitable call for Wenger’s head, after yet another title charge collapsed in
the second half of the season, but one wonders if this is the final straw, even
for the brass upstairs who seem to think fourth place and advancing from the
group stage of the Champions League is enough to warrant Wenger staying in his
job. The FA Cups to the past two seasons are probably the only reason he is
still at the helm but can he even believe he can turn things around after
another wasted season? The truth is that this game is a microcosm of Arsenal
ever since 2006, with all of the old narratives playing out within the 98 or so
minutes on the pitch: 1) Strikers who are good without being world class,
missing clear chances to score, 2) Defensive mistakes costing the team goals
(at a rate higher than most in the league), 3) Inconsistency in the money end
of the season, 4) Lack of leadership on, and off, the pitch, 5) Injury crises
that derail a promising campaign, and 6) Wenger acting as if this is just
another game and not the latest example of a decade-long trend.
The reality at the moment is that Arsenal
are on the brink of complete collapse, potentially falling out of the Top 4
before the season ends, though West Ham currently look more likely to usurp
them than United. As per usual, Wenger will probably cobble together enough
wins to get that fourth position, or maybe even third if City continue their
own indifferent play. But after two quality calendar years – 2013 and 2015 –
when Arsenal led the league form table, they have continued their trend of only
playing half a season at title-winning pace. There are a number of factors that
contribute to this tendency including a thin squad that means fewer “impact”
subs and more injuries, the inability to beat teams they are clearly more
talented than, a penchant for red cards and mistakes in big games, an inability
to finish chances with enough consistency, questionable tactics, starting
lineups and subs and the lack of the winning mentality necessary to win across
38 league games. Wenger seems unwilling to admit his weakness as a manager over
the past decade, papered over, to some extent, by the aforementioned back to
back FA Cups, but the murmur for his dismissal is only growing in fervor.
Anything short of a surprise rebound to the title seems like the final nail in
his coffin anywhere but at Arsenal, but I certainly would not be surprised to
see him perched in his usual seat as next season collapses around him.
3.
The
Culprits: As we look back on another failed season, the question is who is
to blame. As I’ve indicated above, I think Wenger certainly has to take his
fair share of the culpability, but others have also performed below their best.
In this game, let’s start with those who played well. Elneny, even as he missed
two good chances to put Arsenal in front in the first half, had a quality game
and showed the skills that could see him starting his fair share of games while
Ramsey is out. Coquelin was decent without doing anything spectacular, leaving
the defense behind him exposed for both goals. Welbeck did continue a decent
scoring return of late, but blew any positives he could have taken from the
game when missing a sitter that could have drawn a replay. And Mertesacker,
while marginally at fault for the first goal, was excellent for most of the
game. The same cannot be said for the other three defenders, with Chambers
lively but ineffective in his crossing or defensive work, Gibbs a shadow of the
player that was a regular starter not so long ago and Gabriel so inept since
the turn of the year he could well be on his way out if they can find a better
alternative. Further up the pitch, Ozil provided enough chances for the Gunners
to win the game, but as has become their tendency, they blew one after another.
Campbell played well again, though he missed a half-chance himself, and one
does wonder if the reversal of Arsenal’s fortunes have more than a little to do
with him getting less time on the pitch. He certainly couldn’t do any worse
than Giroud or Walcott if pushed to the middle of the pitch, as he has done for
Costa Rica in the past. Giroud and Walcott, it should be said, are among the
major reasons Arsenal’s skid has come at the wrong side of the season, as both
have been in terrible scoring slumps save the 4-0 win over Hull, and Walcott,
in particular, was invisible in this game, as he has been for much of the
season. And that leaves Sanchez, the biggest disappointment of the season and a
player that has not really lived up to the hype that his first-half performance
last season suggested. In this game, he seemed to give the ball away every time
he touched it (I lost count at 14 giveaways of either passes or failed
dribbles) and, except for the late equalizer against Tottenham, this has been a
season to forgot. Not only is his confidence shot, but his predictability in
consistently dribbling in from the left makes him the most blocked shooter in
the entire league.
Injuries have also played a role, as they
seem to every year for Arsenal. The taller Cech might have gotten a mitt to the
second Watford goal, even as it was beautifully taken, and his leadership could
certainly have helped in preventing the absurd first, on a throw in passed so
easily into the center of the box, where Gabriel was isolated on Ighalo. The
absence of Coquelin earlier in the campaign hurt the Gunners as well, right
when they seemed to be taking the race by the scuff of the table’s neck, and he
has been a little off his best since returning. That again points to Wenger, of
course, who really should have bought the DM the team has needed since Viera
left. Ramsey is missed at times, but he has arguably taken two steps back this
season, even as he has been in finer tether of late. And it is clear that
Koscielny is missed, with the Gunners conceding goals at a much higher rate
when he is on the sideline over the past three seasons. Most important,
however, is the knee injury that has kept out Cazorla. He and Coquelin had
formed a solid defense-to-offense pivot in front of the defense, with Coquelin
breaking up play and Cazorla sending the team on the counter so effectively.
They won plenty of games right after the injury, but the fall from grace
appears to have a lot to do with the absence of his crisp passing, solidity in
the middle and vision on the counter.
In the end, the team spirit that seemed to flourish
over the past two seasons, from the moment the team rebounded from an early
two-goal deficit to Hull to win their first trophy in eight years, seems to
have fizzled and frayed. Why that is is not entirely clear, but the only
consistent performers this season have been Cech and Ozil, with the latter
looking increasingly disenchanted with teammates who make too many mistakes in
midfield and defense and an attacking force in front of him that looks more
like F-Troop than the A-Team. With their departure from the FA Cup, Everton and
United will suddenly see a great opportunity to salvage their own floundering
seasons, with Watford and Crystal Palace the other semifinalists (unless, of
course, West Ham win the replay with United). Arsenal will be watching on their
televisions wondering how they let yet another opportunity slip through their
fingers and whether the elusive title will ever grace the Emirates again. So will
the fans …
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