It has been one of the most riveting and unpredictable of
seasons in the history of the Barclay’s Premier League, with a mere eight games
to go until we crown a new champion, find out the three teams that will be joining
them in the Champions League, the two to three that will be going to the less-glamorous
Europa League and the unlucky three that will be relegated. The only
certainties at this point appear to be that Chelsea will not repeat as
champions, Manuel Pelligrini will not be at the helm come May, Aston Villa are
going down and Klopp will be jumping up and down and running around the pitch,
win or lose. Some interesting trends have developed since August, though, and I
thought I would share some of them here …
The Top 6 Form Table
If Leicester do go on to win the table, it is clear both
Arsenal and Man City will see this as a great opportunity lost. But who do they have to blame for their failed
seasons? In the case of City, it is their inability to perform in the biggest
league games, with an incredible 0-3-6 record against the Top 6 so far this
season and only one win against the current top 9. Arsenal, on the other hand,
actually lead the table of games against the top six (8 played, 14 points,
4-2-2), followed by Tottenham (9 played, 12 points, 3-3-3), Leicester (8, 12,
3-3-2), United (7, 12, 3-3-1), West Ham (7, 11, 3-2-2) and City (9, 3, 0-3-6).
Worth noting, Arsenal are the only team to take maximum points from the leaders
and United could take the lead in the table when they hit the eight games most
of the others have played. West Ham, who have been swinging above their weight
for most of the season, could also draw even with Arsenal with their next Top 6
showdown. Looking at the mini-table, however, one can see that Arsenal should
be right in the running for the title and have instead dropped points against
lesser sides this season that have cost them dearly (including 5 to
Southampton, 6 to Chelsea, 2 to Norwich and 3 to lowly Swansea at home).
Road Rules
Home teams usually win at a higher percentage, given the
home crowd, attacking football and the pressure placed on road teams. That has
not been the case this season, as away teams have faired quite well, possibly a
result of the rise of counterattacking football as the most effective strategy
for most teams. Even Arsenal appear to play better on the counter and have won
as many games at home (8) as they have on the road (8). Overall, there have
been 120 home wins, 101 away wins and 82 draws. Leicester have actually won
more games away from home (10) than at the King Power Stadium (9) and so have
Everton (absolutely abysmal at home), Liverpool and Crystal Palace (though they
are having trouble at home and away since the turn of the new year). To round
it off, no team has been undefeated at home and no team has failed to win away.
Could this be a long-term shift or is a one-off? We’ll have to wait and see,
but it does call into question the idea of possession winning football matches
as Barcelona did not so long ago.
City Struggles
City looked like the odds on favorite to win the title this
season, particularly after Chelsea’s horrific start. And yet they continue to
confound with their inconsistent and uninspired play. They did win the first
trophy of the season (the League Cup on penalties) and are through the
quarterfinals of the Champions League for the first time, but that papers over
their relatively terrible league form this year, particularly since Pep
Guardiola was formally announced as the manager that would take over this
summer (they went from a record of 23-5-8 (63.9 WP) before the announcement to
3-3-5 (27.3 WP) since, in all competitions). Among the damning statistics for
the side: 1. They have lost five home league games already this season, as many
as their four previous campaigns combined, 2. Their once potent offense has
been held scoreless in 8 games this year, after only three last term, four the
year before, six in 12-13 and 5 in 11-12. 3. Only Aston Villa players have
covered less ground over the course of a game this season than Man City. 4. Man
City have 10 less points than they did at this stage last season. That would
still not be enough to lead the table at this point, but beyond injuries, one
does wonder what happened to a team that seemed to strengthen in the offseason.
By the way, their crosstown rivals have nine less points, courtesy of their
derby win on Sunday.
Running Wild
Looking at the teams that have covered the most ground per
game can be both an indicator of a successful strategy or an indicator of
constantly chasing the ball. The team that has run the most kilometers per game
is Bournemouth (72.8), followed by Tottenham (72.1), Liverpool and Klopp’s
gegenpress (69.8), West Brom (69.7) and Manchester United (69.2). West Ham,
Arsenal and then Leicester follow, but from the bottom up we find Aston Villa
(65), City (66.7), Stoke City (67) and Chelsea (67.2). Stoke City have actually
played quite well this season, and Bournemouth is closer to the bottom than the
top of the table, but it does seem to say something about the hunger of Chelsea
and City that they are in the basement in this category, exemplifying the sense
that the players are not putting in the effort necessary to win.
Chokers versus the
Cardiac Kids
Champions find ways to win games when the chips or down or
they are off their best while the also-rans tend to drop points that seem
secured. As to the latter, Liverpool leads the charge this year having dropped
15 points from winning positions, including the 2-0 lead they ceded to West Ham
last weekend. Next on the list are Chelsea, Everton and Swansea City (14), then
Crystal, Southampton, Sunderland and Tottenham (13), Arsenal, Leicester and
Newcastle (12). The team that has dropped the fewest, surprisingly, is
Manchester City (a mere 3). On the flip side, Tottenham erases those 13 lost
points by claiming the most from a losing position by far (18). The
overachieving Hammers are second (12), followed by Leicester (11), Liverpool
(11), Swansea City (11), Southampton (10) and Arsenal and West Brom (9 apiece).
Among the others, Chelsea have hit back for 8, Everton for 7, City for 7 and
United for a mere 4. As one can see, for many teams the two cancel each other
out, though a few trends do seem to emerge: 1. For the second year running,
Tottenham are a hard team to put away and can hit you late on, 2. The three
most surprising teams in the league lead in comeback points (Tottenham, West
Ham and Leicester), 3. City seem to win or lose based predominantly on who
scores first, 4. Many of the teams struggling toward the bottom of the table
find it hard to come back in games, including Watford, Norwich and Aston Villa,
though United are also devoid of the rousing spirit that once colored their
fans red (only 4 points from losing positions all year).
Striking Gold
Teams that end up at the top of the table almost always have
a scorer of at least 20-goals. With plenty of games to play, only one striker
has reached the 20-goal mark in the league (Kane on 21), though several others
are closing in on that rubicon. The currently leaders in the golden boot race
are Kane (21), Vardy (19), Lukaku (18), Aguero (16), Mahrez (16), Ighalo (14),
Giroud (12) and, impressively in less than a full season, Defoe (12). Costa has
fallen to 11 goals while impressive Stoke winger Arnautovic has chipped in 10
and Watford’s striking partner Deeney 9. A few other noteworthy numbers include
Wijnaldum’s 9 from the wing, Payet’s 8 from the #10 and Ross Barkley finally
living up to his potential with 8. One might also mention the measly return of
7 goals Liverpool have received for their 32.5-million-pound investment in
Benteke. Arsenal might look back on their failure this season as resulting from
a poor conversion rate (they create the most opportunities in the league) and
the fact they lack the threat through the middle that the top teams in Europe
always have (particularly as most of us screamed for Wenger to buy a
world-class striker this past summer!).
The Creators
Mesut Ozil has had a breakout year and is closing in on the
league record (he only needs three more, as he currently sits on 18). However,
he could be in another galaxy if the corps of strikers in front of him finished
more of the chances created. Almost as impressive, however, is the dual threat
Riyad Mahrez, who has 11 league assists to go with his 16 goals. Silva is third
with 10, surprising given how poor his form appears to be in recent months.
From there we can add the impressive emergence of Dele Alli (9), De Bruyne (9,
even as he has been out for months), Ericksen (8), the Barca product Deulofeu
(8) and Firmino (7).
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