Wednesday, May 15, 2013

Gunners Win; Wigan Relegated

The last day of the season was shaping up as a potentially four-team struggle for survival, but Wigan's dreams of another escape were shattered in their last two league matches, first blowing a lead against Swansea (2-3) and then coming up against an Arsenal team that needed the win just as much. Sandwiched in between was the epic FA Cup final victory over Manchester City, giving Wigan fans their first piece of silverware in their history. In the game yesterday, Arsenal looked strong early and took the lead on some shambolic defending from Wigan, with the ball bouncing off a Cazorla corner and into the path of Podolski, who headed home easily in the 11th minute. Arsenal continued to dominate for most of the rest of the half, but failed to find a second goal for not the first time this season. When Arsenal nemesis Mike Dean called a questionable foul on the edge of the box a minute from the end of the first half, I'm sure I wasn't the only Gooner to smell impending doom. It came in the form of a fine free kick from Shaun Maloney, leveling the score at halftime. 

Wigan then came out brightly to start the second half and had a number of chances to take the lead. Strong defending and a key save stopped the momentum though and, within seven minutes, Arsenal had sown up the victory. It was a well-played plan, recognizing that a draw did Wigan do favors and playing on the counter with Cazorla working his magic from all angles (he assisted all four goals). The all-important second came in the 63rd on a swift break that sent Cazorla down the right wing. He sent in a blistering cross that Wigan's goalie Joel Robles couldn't quite get to and Walcott tumbled forward, sending the ball over Robles and into the Wigan net. Five minutes later, a Cazorla header put Podolski in on goal and his clever side boot over Robles was a truly lovely finish. The fourth came on a pass from Cazorla to a charging Ramsey, who pushed past the Wigan defenders and onto the left side of goal. He had an obvious lay off for an easy finish, but decided to go it alone and beat Robles at the near post with a pounding shot into the roof of the net (while looking away, one should add). It was Ramsey's first goal of the season and put the contest beyond doubt. 

So Arsenal are one game away from again taking fourth, or maybe even third, place and Wigan go down for the first time in several years (and become the first FA Cup winner ever to be relegated). But Martinez and Wigan owner Whelan will take pride in providing the first major medal for the upstarts who beat a team with a budget almost 20 times theirs. Arsenal continued their impressive form since the defeat at Tottenham and now simply need to beat a Newcastle team with nothing to play for to get their annual "trophy." It is, of course, a bittersweet achievement, given that Chelsea -- in a less than stellar season where they lost every other chance for a trophy (7 in all, I believe) -- won a real medal with their 2-1 triumph in the Euro League final. But the Gunners are clearly moving in the right direction and the right signings this summer could make them real contenders for silverware next season. They have now won 8 of their last 10, with two winnable draws (against Everton and Man U) thrown in. And they are the last to beat Bayern at home, scoring two against a team that will set the single-season record for the Bundesliga. It could also be the case, that the young crew salvaging the season with this great run in are now made of the sort of mettle that is necessary to win the games we lost earlier this season (to Bradford, Blackburn and the first leg against Bayern). 

Some general thoughts on the shape of the team, at present ...

1. Defense: the Gunners have become a much more solid team in the back, with Koscielny and Mertesacker forming a formidable duo that match speed (Kos) with positioning and height (Mert). Both made great plays in the game and deserved a 9 and 8, respectively. Szczesny made a couple of good saves, but was bailed out by Kos early and should have covered the near post on the goal. He also slipped up a couple of passes from the back. He is improving, but we clearly need someone that can compete with him for the number one job next year. Sagna had another below par game, giving up the ball on a couple of occasions and sending in crosses to no one (he has one of the worst successful cross rates in the EPL (around 23% I think). I think it is time to cut our losses there and find a replacement that can vie for time with Jenkinson, who has lost his place in an effort to give Sagna the chance to regain his form. Lest us forget that it was the French right back that gave Man U the equalizer; otherwise we would already be safe. On the left, Gibbs is improving and will clearly be competing with Monreal next year for a place (he has gotten much better defensively, while Monreal seems to confuse his positioning at times). So on the defensive end, I think we should sell Vermaelen (hard to believe how far he's fallen this year), Sagna and one or both of the two backup keepers and buy a keeper, centre half and right back. This sounds ambitious, but seems like the way to go with Sagna and Verm going for less than they would have, but maybe supplying the funding for a quality right back with a little left over.

2. Midfield: Ramsey has really come into his own the last two months, though I thought he was a bit sloppy with the ball. But for the third straight game, he completed the most passes of any Gunner and tried more forward passes than anyone as well. He scored his first goal of the season and is among our best defending mids, when he doesn't lunge in. Arteta was quietly impressive again, but our reliance on him is a major concern and I still think we would benefit from a strong defensive mid who can get the ball moving on the counter. There are several reasonable options out there and I hope we take care of that. Beyond that, unless Fabergas does in fact become available, I think we are solid with what we have. There is Wilshire, Cazorla and even the Ox who can play in the attacking role (#10), Wilshire, Ramsey and Arteta (if we get a DM) that can play B-2-B and a few up and comers that can fit in as needed (Eisfeld interests me a lot). Coquelin hasn't developed as quickly as we hoped and will probably go this summer and we really need to give up on Diaby, even though he may play a part for a little while some time next season. If Fabergas is available, I really do think we should snatch him up. Cazorla can always move to the left and roam, as he did so effectively yesterday and Arteta isn't getting any young, giving Wilshire and/or Ramsey slightly deeper roles. But this is clearly our most settled part of the pitch.

3. Forwards: Podolski again showed what he can do when he is on the pitch and even though he disappeared for parts of the game, his two goals were key to the victory. He has shown that with some work, he could be a viable option up front -- when needed -- though probably not our leading striker overall. Walcott played maybe the best game I've ever seen from him, charging up the field, heading back to cover Sagna on the right and making a nuisance of himself across the pitch. His second goal sent us on the way to the route and he is really starting to show a maturity and improved attitude that makes the signing and salary seem like good money spent. Giroud is the biggest problem of our starting 3 in the 4-3-3 and it seems Wenger recognizes this. There is a rumour that we are in for Real's Higuain, and given his record of more than a goal every 2 games, he would be a great signing (even at 22 million pounds). The other option, Jovetic, is young but has real upside from what I've heard, though I haven't really seen him play (just clips). His return this year is not great though, and I would prefer Higuain, or both. Rumours of us going in for Rooney are absurd, but fun to consider. I would take him in a heartbeat and make him our lead striker or creative #10 right behind. I truly believe we should let Gervinho go to give Ox more playing time on one of the wings, as he has looked better in his last few starts and either get two strikers or another winger to compete. 

So good signings in all three areas of the pitch could make Arsenal a real contender next year, in my mind. The key is a better option at right back, a goalkeeper to either replace or pressure Sz, a defensive mid and a striker. I have named some other possibilities as well, but those four signings would go a long way toward improving a team that has really finished the season in title-challenging form. The main issue going forward is belief against the top four, as our record this year has been paltry in that regard. Most of those games were winnable (except the one at Old Trafford when we were summarily dismissed (even with the 2-1 score line)) and it was lack of discipline in defense early and lack of finishing on the other end of the pitch. The job of securing UCL yet again is almost done, let's hope we come out strong and wipe St. James Park with a really average Newcastle team this Sunday. COYG!

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