Wednesday, January 02, 2013

Gooners Get Ready: Ugly 1-1 Draw Augurs Troubles to Come

I think after the awful 1-1 draw at Southampton yesterday to acknowledge that the top four is looking like an outside possibility at present. The Gunners came into the New Year's game on a high after four successive wins, culminating in the 7-3 mauling of Newcastle last week. And yet after a bright five minutes to open the game, it was probably the worst offensive performance of the year (which is saying something). Bad pass after bad pass were sprayed around the pitch, only one shot on goal all game and defensive play that was often shambolic. We were lucky to even get a point as a goal was called off in the second half that looked legitimate (for a foul, I believe) and we got our only one of the day on a Walcott free kick that was pushed in by a poor attempt at a block. The reality is this is the most inconsistent team in the many years I have watched Arsenal and that our 18 goal differential is based solely on a few offensive outbursts. Too often this team simply lacks flow, creativity and forward momentum and this tendency again reared its ugly head against a bottom dweller that wasn't even pressing us up the field that often. The Gunners are in trouble and many of their presumed targets in the transfer window appear to be gone or not coming. Looking at the game in more detail, a few troubling problems that have existed most of the year reemerged:

1. Inconsistency and lack of effort: football is a funny game and even the best players have off days. But too often this year it is the entire team having an off day at the same time. Sagna was particularly inept for the second game running and his error was again key in the opening goal, as he cleared the ball right into the middle of the 18 yard box, leading to the goal. He wasn't the only one to blame on the opener, as there were at least three chances to clear, but from beginning to end he was passing poorly, losing the ball, failing to press on defense and looking like he didn't really care. I'm not sure if he is pushing for a transfer or has simply lost his confidence, but it is bizarre to see such a consistently strong player completely collapse in two straight games. I would have taken him out against Newcastle after his part in the second cheap goal, but Wenger stuck with him even tonight as his play went from bad to worse. Jenkinson is sitting on the bench and he would certainly be a better sub than either Gervinho or Ramsey, which gets me to point two. 

2. The subs that Wenger has played this season have been baffling to say the least. The most obvious came against Aston Villa, when Giroud was subbed for Coquelin late in a 1-1 draw. Ramsey has often come on in the second half even as his form has dipped considerably this year and Gervinho has been downright awful since an early outpouring of goals that dried up in early October. To bring those two on in a game we really needed to win seems like an indication that Wenger just doesn't know what he is doing anymore. Yes our bench is short, but what about bringing on the most creative force not starting -- Rosicky, who has looked bright since coming back from injury but rarely gets to play. The real questions about Wenger's sub policy started last year in the Man U game when he pulled Ox for Arshavin, costing us at least a point (and maybe finally sealing RVP's departure). But he seems stubborn beyond reason and really only has himself to blame for not having more impact players available. This window will be the last for Wenger to show that he actually can push Arsenal back toward the top. Otherwise I think we have to realize that dour times loom for this once great team.

3. Conditioning: every team in the league plays a very busy schedule and that might explain the outpouring of goals that has occurred over this festive season. But Arsenal was given respite, by having their Boxing Day match with West Ham postponed. That break showed in the 7-3 win over Newcastle, but as has often been the case this year, whenever we play twice in a week we look poor. The team certainly looked "jaded," as Wenger likes to say, but why? The first problem, of course, is lack of squad depth, thus making starters play far too many games. Cazorla looked particularly tired, as did Wilshire, Sagna and Gibbs (who played the best of anyone from my perspective). But I remember both Nasri and Fabergas mentioning the superior conditioning at their new clubs after their transfers. Wenger was once at the forefront of conditioning and diet in the Premiership, but one has to ask if he has failed in recent years given the injury record and fact we play tired far too often. 

4. Walcott: it appears he is finally going to put pen to paper and extend his contract at Arsenal. This is good news if for no other reason because it stops the bleeding of losing our best players every year. But at 23, I hope Wenger can convince the young, inconsistent player that he still needs to spend time on the wing. While his display against Newcastle was sublime, he was below par in this game and was lucky to get the goal that did give us a point. Walcott must get stronger and improve his hold up play if he is going to be a top striker. Yes the 14 goals this season are impressive, particularly with all the time he has spent on the bench, but he was completely ineffective in this one and anyone could see the weaknesses he still has to address, as he is outmuscled by defenders on a regular basis. To repeat a point I often make, I think we would be a better team in a 4-4-2 or some combination that put two up top like 4-2-2-2. Like Tottenham does, Giroud and Walcott up front allows us to put more pressure on the goal, as it provides a double threat. But for this to happen, I think Wenger needs to go -- as he seems inured to the 4-3-3 (or some close proximity 4-2-3-1). 

5. Wenger notice: I have been writing about this for some time now, but isn't it time to admit Wenger can never turn this team around? Guardiola is out there looking for a job and we now have a young core of players signed up to build a brighter future (Gibbs, Ox, Walcott (hopefully), Wilshire and Eisfeld). As I have argued in previous articles, Wenger fails on too many fronts: a. Transfer policy: flops like Arshavin and Gervinho limit our ability to sign the players we need (and let's add Squillaci, Park, Santos and Chamakh to that list just in the past few years). And the failure to replace Song and count on Diaby has been a key factor in our decline, as has not signing another striker this summer. b. Losing our best players: I truly believe RVP would have stayed if he thought this team was on a path to winning something. But we clearly aren't and I don't blame him for leaving. I believe the same could be said of Fabergas, even as he was going to head back to Barca at some point. c. Formation (see above). d. Motivation: the Gunners have had teams that should have at least won a League Cup in the past eight years, but have not done the job. At this point in the season, until last year, we were legitimate contenders for the EPL crown, but those days are long gone and our teams always find ways to blow it in the end. Who else can you blame but the coach? And the number of subpar performances this year is uncanny and, again, who should we blame? 

I can't remember the last time the Gunners scored late to rescue or gain points (maybe the 2 goals against West Ham that broke a 1-1 score heading into the 70th minute). This is down to not having the kind of impact subs a team needs to compete at the top level. Look across the league and you have Man United with endless choices including Hernandez, City with Dzeko and others, and Chelsea with tons of talent on the bench (though not at the striker position at the moment). The team plays too often without passion or real effort and watching Sagna stand around as Southampton attacked yesterday showed me that lack of spirit in this club on the decline. It was a vital two points dropped that pushed us down the table and after the FA Cup tie away at Swansea, we face Man City at home, Chelsea at the Bridge, and West Ham, Liverpool and Stoke at Home. On February 2, our season could already be in real crisis and we will need to have top performances to win even two of these games. Yes we have the talent to go on a run, but this is the flakiest team I have ever seen. Let's hope for the best, but it is time to face reality -- this team and Wenger just aren't good enough at present to match our ambitions.  

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