Sunday, January 20, 2013

Arsenal Top Four Hopes in the Balance

Arsenal lost 2-1 at Chelsea today and now stand 7 points outside of fourth, though they can cut it to four with a win Wednesday against reeling West Ham. Yet looking at the play of Tottenham at present, it is clear that a run of wins is necessary to move further up the table and surpass them. Arsenal started with a real chance in the 4th minute when a nice through ball from Walcott found Giroud in on goal. But the Frenchman pushed a real opportunity wide and continued his run of two months without a goal. A minute later, Arsenal was made to pay as a ball over the top from midfield found Mata, who blasted the ball over Sz. The Gunners had the right to feel aggrieved however, as the play started on a clear foul on Coquelin by Ramirez that should have elicited a free kick. It was not the first time Martin Atkinson has cost Arsenal points and he added to Wenger's rage in the 15th minute, when Sz came out to challenge Ramirez and ceded a penalty. While it was a 50-50 decision, it did appear Ramirez was falling down before any foul by the keeper. Lampard stepped up and cooly finished. From there a Chelsea romp was on, but Arsenal held firm, with a little luck, and found themselves down 2-0 at halftime. It was a terrible 45 minutes for not the first time this season and showed a team that is far too inconsistent and nervous to compete in the big moments. 

The second half was a completely different affair, as Arsenal showed forward momentum and finally got a first goal in the 57th minute. Game on, but Arsenal could not find the equalizer and that's how it ended. Many of the problems that have plagued the Gunners all year came to the fore in this one. They were unlucky with the two calls, but missed plenty of opportunities to get themselves back in or equalize and the corners and crosses were below average. Sagna, in particular, had another very poor game, getting caught up field on the first goal and giving the ball away on numerous occasions. After Jenkinson's great start, it's hard to understand why he never even gets on the pitch. Wenger also seemed clueless in the first half to do anything to change the tide, sitting back in his seat even when Wilshire looked over to him for a change of formation. Ramsey came on in the second half for a lethargic looking Diaby and, in a what? moment, Arshavin came on late but it was not enough. First to player grades and then some thoughts on the rest of the season.

Szczesny (5/10): the goalkeeper could have come out a little faster on the Mata goal, conceded the penalty and almost gave up a third when he came too far out and was surpassed by Ba, only to be saved from blushes by a fine goal line clearance from Vermaelen. He also added a few poor passes out to a pretty forgettable day.

Sagna (5/10): Sagna needs a rest as his performances have been below par for several games running, with one decent game in the mix. He gets caught out of position too often, lacks the pace to get past defenders on the right and gives the ball away too frequently. He sometimes look lazy on the pitch and Arsenal are paying.

Mertesacker (7/10): solid at the back, though he might have gotten back sooner on the Mata goal. Pairing him with Vermaelen makes a lot more sense than any other half back formation, and he has been the most consistent performer from Arsenal this year.

Vermaelen (6.5/10): a decent game for the captain, but was beat on a few occasions. The save on the line certainly improved his score.

Gibbs (7/10): Gibbs had a solid game and his dribbling skills and defensive abilities certainly bode well for the future  -- if he can stay injury free. He has the ability to get around defenders going forward and the speed to beat them down the line. Can improve his crossing, but growing into a solid player.

Diaby (6/10): after the long injury layoff, one would assume he would have gotten a rest here. But with the injury to Arteta, Wenger had little choice. Some good passes and strong play in the middle, but he's not yet making the charging runs that he is known for.

Coquelin (5/10): just not good enough to play for Arsenal in my estimation. He has a nice touch but lacks the physical strength and composure to play at DM. He was often beaten to the ball, gave it up consistently and just doesn't produce much going forward. As I've been saying all season, we need a strong defensive midfielder to shore up the back and cover for Vermaelen and Gibbs when they forge forward. 

Wilshire (6.5/10): after the performance of the season, Wilshire was decent but not as electric as in the win over Swansea. The lack of cover behind hurts his game and Giroud doesn't help with his lack of pace when Wilshire does go on his runs. But Chelsea clogged the middle when he thrust forward and limited his impact. His crosses on corners tended to be too short as well.

Cazorla (7.5/10): Cazorla had a great game and had the assist on the Walcott goal. He could easily have had three if Giroud could finish and Walcott stay onsides. But seems to be recapturing the form of earlier in the season. I do think he would be better on the right wing or CAM, as he was completely isolated in the first half out on the left. It's another argument for the 4-4-2 I've been suggesting, to maximize the talent we do have. 

Walcott (7/10): Walcott cooly finished to get the Gunners back in the game and had the pass right at the onset that should have given us the early lead. His movement was good and he's toughened up a bit in recent games, getting past defenders not only with his speed. I do not think he should be taking corners though, as his deliveries almost always led to easy grabs by Cech. And given how bad Giroud is playing at present, there is a strong argument for him to start playing through the middle again.

Giroud (4/10): the role of a striker is to score goals and two months without one is completely unacceptable. In some of those games, to be fair, he was getting no service, but he too often blows chances. He had two clear headers in the second half and did nothing with either, plus the aforementioned chance early and a few other half opportunities. He was decent in the air winning the ball and starting the attack, but just isn't the player we were hoping for. 

Subs

Ramsey (7/10): Ramsey came on in the 57th minute and it is clear he is getting his mojo back. He did lose the ball twice, but otherwise seems confident and more offensive minded on the pitch. Let's hope he keeps the form and starts contributing again in a positive way.

Arshavin (5/10): the little Russian who can't did little after coming on for Diaby late and is just the latest example of a bench without any real impact players. This is one of the major complaints against Wenger at present and with 11 days left in the window, I really hope he starts to address this. 

1. Wenger: I have obviously been a big critic of our manager all season and this game raised more questions. For one, did we really need both Coquelin and Diaby in the lineup, pushing Cazorla to the left (the fact Pod was sick probably contributed, to be fair). And his inability or unwillingness to adapt in formation or with a sub after we were being bullied throughout the first half, just seemed to reaffirm a central problem with the coach. The lack of depth to come off the bench shows his failures in the transfer window and giving up RVP rather than running down his contract continues to hurt, given Giroud's inability to score. A central problem all season has been the lack of a DM and Wenger has still failed to address this issue. And finally, for not the first time this season, the players came out flat and who else is to blame but the coach -- together with an obvious psychological problem (research consistently shows that people perform to the level of expectations --> by lowering them year over year, isn't he lowering the ambitions of the players -- and losing his best).

2. Positive Signs: the second half showed a much improved Arsenal side, attacking with style, pushing forward on the counter and sending balls into dangerous areas. But we need strikers who can finish, midfielders who chip in more goals and better set piece performance. Yet the young core of the team could augur a better future for Arsenal. Wilshire is growing into being a top attacking mid, Gibbs keeps improving, Ox should only improve as he gets older, stronger and more playing time, Walcott is here for three and a half more years and has clearly found his finishing touch (if not a little too wasteful at times). And Jenkinson could grow into Sagna's replacement, in addition to some others like Eisfeld and Gnarby who seem poised to contribute in the near future. The problem is clear -- leadership on the pitch (Wilshire could become that voice), a defense that seems to lose their cool or heads at key moments and the necessity of strikers who can score.

3. Tranfer Window: Wenger likes to make his moves late in January, if at all, and the recent rumors of a move for Cavani would be more than welcome. He is a dynamic striker that could put in the goals we need. That could push Giroud to an impact sub, where a late goal might get him back on track. He has the tools, minus pace, to be a top player, but his confidence is low and he doesn't have the poise to finish when in on goal. The inability of Arsenal to score late, with a couple exceptions in league competitions, has cost us numerous points -- unlike last year when we grabbed late winners or draws in a number of matches. That is down to the lack of quality up front and a general lack of winner's mentality throughout the squad. We also clearly need a DM and I would like to at least see a bid for Zaha, and exciting young player that could have a real impact in the future. What Wenger will do is a mystery to most, including Tony Adams who said as much in a recent interview. 

So after a nice runup to the new year, Arsenal has fallen back into old habits from the strike of midnight 2013. Four straight wins, including the thrashing of Newcastle bought some brightness to the weary Gooners' hearts, but we started 2013 with a draw at Southampton and then losses to Man City and Chelsea -- with the draw and then win against Swansea in the FA Cup sandwiched in. Next up are three games at the Emirates, against West Ham, Liverpool and Stoke -- and we now need 7 to 9 points to stay within reach of the top four. Then comes Sunderland on the road and Aston Villa at home before a key showdown with Tottenham, who took a point off Manchester United today with a late Demsey equalizer. It is now or never for the Gunners if they want to stake a claim to Champions League football next year.               

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