Monday, May 14, 2012

Man City Miracle; Arsenal Reprieve

The EPL season is now over, though not decided. That won't happen until Chelsea plays Bayern Munich in the Champions League Final on Saturday. If Chelsea wins, Tottenham go to the European League and, if I understand, Newcastle and Everton as well. If not, Chelsea finishes in a nightmare sixth, must go to the European league and has an FA Cup that will do little to salve the wounds of a year without UCL. It will be a big ask missing four players including Ramires (and his great form of late), Terry, Ivanovic and Miereles -- and potentially also being without Luiz and Cahill. But they have been impressive in big games since Di Matteo took over and might just pull off the miracle.

In any case, yesterday had to be one of the most exciting final days in the history of English football -- even better than when Arsenal beat Liverpool 2-0 to win in on total goals in 1989. Over the course of the simultaneous 10 matches, Arsenal was in 3rd, in 4th (with Tottenham salivating) then back in third after a third mistake by West Brom backup goalkeeper Fulop, Bolton was out then in then out then in then, ultimately, out (they drew 2-2) and QPR was celebrating as they blew an improbable 2-1 road win, realizing they had escaped the bounce. Of course the big story was in the two Manchesters. As the second half of both games began, Manchester United was mired in second and seemed to have no chance of making up the goal difference (after blowing 3 or 4 opportunities and clinging to a 1-0 lead). Then the news arrived at Sunderland that QPR had tied on an inexplicable mistake by Lescott and great finish from Cisse. United fans start murmuring about the possibility and the team seemed as interested in the news as their own game. Then QPR pulled off a miracle, after Joey Barton was sent off in the 55th minute for a stupid elbow of Tevez, and somehow score again. Now United fans are excited and the team realizes as the seconds tick off that they are going to snatch the title. 

Fergie had heard the news of the second goal and literally jumps out of his seat. United fans are celebrating, the players realize what's happening and the 90th minute arrives. They are just controlling the ball and playing for what they think is the last three minutes of an improbable title. And then news of the first Man City goal shows up on a fan's smartphone. The crowd begins to get worried. Back at the Ethiad, a crowd that was reeling at the potential loss after 44 years of waiting come to life as Eden Dzeko heads in for 2-2 in the 92nd minute. QPR takes their time on the ensuing kickoff and the tension is palpable. Then who but Balotteli dives to get a through ball to Aguero who cooly goes around the last defender and rifles the ball past Kelly on the near post. An explosion of celebration and the title that seemed theirs for certain before the New Years slip started. As the United game ends, Fergie walks toward the pitch assuming he is about to pick up United's 20th title only to turn as someone tells him the news. The players quickly realize what has happened and are so crestfallen, they're not sure what to do.

And so City wins the title in the most dramatic fashion possible -- two goals in stoppage time to rescue their season and win the league. Aguero is the star, but Dzeko, Tevez and Balotteli play pivotal roles (even as all of them could be gone next year). For the first time in EPL history, goal difference is the difference and United has to rue all the chances they have blown over the course of the season -- the balls that hit the post, the flubbed open nets, the late concedes, etc. Man City fulfilled their destiny and, unfortunately, showed that money can essentially buy titles (though not of the UCL variety yet). As I celebrated along with the players, I also recognized that fair play needs to get its due in the next few years to end what will become dominance of European football by the rich from the Middle East and Russia. But it was a day to remember and Arsenal, of course, squeaked out a victory.

So on to the Gunners. The season is over. Third place is secured. Another year of Champions League football. No silverware. A late season fade yet again and more goals conceded this year than in the previous four (the goals allowed has been creeping upward for five straight years). We might lose another star and Wenger still seems clueless about spending big to again compete at the top. There are signs things could change, but if they don't, Arsenal is to become the also-ran that many pundits think they already are. Who can argue with them? Wenger seems unwilling to do the things necessary to win -- for example, getting rid of the dead weight, accepting failure on players that don't perform rather than letting them go out week after week, not creating enough competition at key positions to motivate his players, playing a high line when it is pure insanity, rarely changing tactics, refusing to spend for players that are available and lowering standards year after year. Sure we might be better off than Chelsea and Liverpool at the moment (though both won silverware and the Blues could still snag the ultimate prize), but they will spend big again this summer and improve. And Wenger claims he won't, after promising the opposite a few short months ago.

So where do we go from here? The most troubling thing for me yesterday was this quote from Wenger: "I'm proud of the season. The mental solidity, the unity and solidarity inside the club has been tested. We didn't show any weakness and kept united." Hmm ... I would say they showed a lot of weakness, particularly at key moment and in the final run-in. Lest us forget the match yesterday shouldn't have mattered -- we lost to QPR, gave up two early goals to Wigan and lost, let two points slip away at home against Chelsea in the nil-nil draw, drew with Stoke after a poor early defensive error, blew a 3-2 lead against Norwich in the last ten minutes and didn't complete the "almost" comeback against AC Milan that could have really kept us rolling to the end. The team seemed flat for at least half of four or five of our last games and the defense looked terrible -- giving up goal after unnecessary goal. It is clear that a number of things need to happen with this club. Here are a few that I think are at the top of the list:

1. We need to change our defensive tactics and Vermaelen has to be reigned in. I partially blame him for the end of season fall, as he is venturing forward far too often. Yesterday I actually saw him looking to the bench and being pulled back. It's absurd. Kos had a great year, with some hiccups, but discipline in the back must be reestablished. Vertonghen would be a nice solution, but he now seems intent on going to Tottenham, though one wonders if he'll change his mind if Chelsea wins Saturday. We need to replace Jenkinson, who looked terrible yesterday not for the first time (he doesn't understand how to take the inside away or stay in front of the wingers), and get a reliable right back. Gibbs and Santos are fine on the right (to me) though I'm not completely convinced by Gibbs. And we need another center half, if not Vert then someone else. Get rid of Squillaci and hopefully Djourou as well.    
2. Get M'Villa or another defensive midfielder. Song has improved dramatically, but a few key assists seem to have convinced him to play further up the pitch than he should, leaving us exposed at the back. The two West Brom goals were almost as embarrassing as two of our three. 
3. We need competition or a replacement for Ramsey. He has gotten worse as the season has worn on and just isn't doing the job. Why Chamberlain got no time at the end of the season, is beyond me. He could slot into the hole position behind the striker quite nicely and I think thrive from that position. I wonder if Wenger was essentially telling the media and the fans to shut up by not playing him. That sort of attitude needs to be addressed by the board. 
4. We might have to bear Gervinho for one more year, but assuming RVP stays, we need to get someone better on the left. Assuming Walcott stays and continues to improve, one formation would see Podolski on the Left, RVP in the Middle and Walcott on the right. We could, of course, switch to Pod and RVP up front as well. But Gervinho, for all his trickery, is just not getting the job done with either goals or assists; after a bright start. There have been rumors of bringing in Sessignon or Hoillet, but who knows what will happen with those. I also like the idea of Clint Demsey, who could play up front or move back toward midfield. He would be a great signing and could give us three legitimate goal scorers going into next season.
5. We need a creative midfielder to come in. I'm not sure who that should be, but it's clear that we are often lacking the final ball that creates goals. If RVP does go, God forbid, we will be a worse team next year unless we make some big signings (Giroud maybe, though he doesn't seem to want to come).  


Ultimately, after the start we had, we can be happy with third. But I don't think we can be happy with the form (or effort) from the squad in the last two months. After a great run, they went back to careless defending, uninspired play and even some poor goalkeeping. Things need to change if the Gunners are to compete. At the top of the list, is bringing in two or three big names, cutting the fat (Squillaci, Almunia, Bendtner, Chamakh, Park, etc.). Yes Wilshire and Arteta will be back, yes Diaby might actually make it through three games without an injury, yes RVP could return (I'm starting to doubt it) and yes several players got another year of experience. But we need more depth, we need more talent and we need to shore up our defense. If both wingers are coming forward as often as say Sagna and Santos, Vermaelen, Kos and Song have to hold the line. Wenger seems trapped in the past, unwilling to truly change things. Maybe the addition from Bould (fond goodbye to Rice) will shake things up a little, particularly on the defensive end, but Wenger has to realize the rest of Europe has caught up and his advantage is long gone. 


Gunner fans should be happy but not content. Things need to change, but hope springs anew. If Wenger has another season like this, one wonders if we should knock on the door of an unemployed Barcelona fella, who just had a pretty good four years (with one terrible week thrown in to wreck the party). Until next season ...

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