Wenger: The End is Nigh?

The 2-0 loss to Swansea City at home was just the latest disappointment in a season full of them. In fact, disappointment has been the leitmotif of being a Gooner for seven and a half long years now. There has been hope, change just around the corner, heartbreak in FA Cup and Champions League finals (and the Carling Cup a couple of years ago) and dipping form in the league (often with late season collapses). It all started with the move to the Emirates and the dismantling of one of the greatest, most exciting teams the Premier League has ever seen. Since then, there has been a slow but steady drop in quality, accelerating in the past two seasons. Many have been questioning the direction of the Gunners throughout this period, but it is clear that the calls for change have become more amplified in the past season and a half. In 2011-12, Van Persie was our savior and two good league runs saw us claim the third place spot and Champions League football. Today we sit in 10th place, with only five victories in our first fifteen fixtures of the EPL season. We have a tough third round tie in the FA Cup and a more navigable route to the Carling semis. We also face a potentially difficult opponent in the first round of the knock-out stage of the UCL. And given our current form, no victory is assured.

The question that has finally emerged in the mainstream is whether Wenger's time at the club is coming to a close. We still have the die hard "In Arsene We Trust" crowd and many others who blame the board, as well as a few that believe he must be given the money to have one last shot at success. I tended, except for a few moments of despair over the past year and a half, to sit with the latter camp, arguing that Wenger was simply doing the best he could with the financial strains of the club (often self-imposed). But I have to admit that I have been losing faith in our iconic coach and now feel that it is probably time for a change. It appears the best case scenario this year is going on a run and again claiming third or fourth place in the league and maybe just snagging the Carling or FA Cup. But is this really enough to keep the manager in charge? Let's look at the arguments for his departure, which I don't see happening until the end of the season (unless we continue to play as we have the past two weeks).

1. Losing our Best Players
This is the first and most obvious problem with Arsenal. Right now, we could theoretically have Ashley Cole or Clichy as Left Back, our current rotation of three decent half-backs (Mertesacker being the best so far this season, in my opinion) or maybe Kolo Toure in the mix, Sagna on the right, Song and Arteta switching back and forth as DM/box-to-box midfielders, Wilshire in front and Fabergas as CAM (with Rosicky, Diaby and, ugh, Ramsey, as backup), Walcott as a winger on the right, Van Persie in the middle and Nasri on the left wing. That would be one of the best line-ups in the league. But, of course, most of these players have left. Fabergas might have been beyond our control, though I do wonder if a little more silverware would have had him stay for a few more years. Nasri wanted more money and glory, but was another tough loss. Clichy was another tough loss, with Gibbs playing decent, but unable to cross on a regular basis. And then there was the loss of RVP, who I believe would have stayed if he was promised more money and a real commitment to improving the strength and depth of the squad. All of these have hurt dramatically and one has to ask whether it is really the players' fault? Could it be that they have lost faith in Wenger's ability to lead the Gunners to compete in the league and win trophies. All have gone on to win silverware elsewhere rather quickly (many at Man City obviously, and we will have to see about RVP) and have let comments leak that indicate that, while they love Arsenal, the training, tactics and commitment to winning was stronger at their new clubs.

Maybe most baffling of all these moves, however, was the selling of Alex Song -- a loss that I believe has played a key role in our problems this year. Before I get to that, though, let's look at those losses in context. Going back a mere two seasons, we were in the title hunt at the turn of the season, in the Carling Cup Final and had beaten Barcelona with a nice comeback 2-1 win at the Emirates. But like the previous two campaigns, things unraveled in the second half. It started with the bizarre draw at Newcastle, when we ceded a four goal lead. Then the humiliating defeat to Birmingham City in the Cup final, followed by a tough draws at Tottenham, after an early lead and the last second penalty against Liverpool (goodbye Eboue). Last season, we had the horrific start, facilitated by injuries and the losses of Clichy, Nasri and Fabergas late -- after Wenger had assured fans the latter two would not leave. A series of panic buys followed and, as I previously stated, it was only RVPs breakout year that saved us. Now back to Song. It was assumed that his departure, which no one really understood as he had three years left on his contract and was finally coming good for the squad (most assists for the Gunners last season), would lead to the purchase of a defensive minded midfielder. But as the last days of the transfer window closed, not only did we not purchase a DM, but we failed to secure another striker (another major concern that has hurt us dramatically). Arteta, our best purchase two summers ago, had to move back to marshal the space in front of the defense, and this has seriously limited his ability to create. It was okay when Diaby was in, but his predictable injury after a nice run essentially undermined our strengths (Arteta was forced to play out of position, Cazorla is now without the space he needs to create, and Wilshire is forced to play too far back to be as creative as we would like). The reality is that while these players might have left for more money, this is the result of a ridiculous pay scale at the club -- who pay too much to squad players -- it also is a reflection of their belief that Arsenal is run like a business rather than a team dedicated to winning. And one has to further believe that Wenger is part of the problem, particularly if he is selling his best players and replacing them with decent, but inferior models. Management is to blame, but why is Wenger innocent, particularly as he often seems unwilling to actually splash the cash on proven talent. 

2. Squad Depth/Transfer Policy:
This leads to the second major critique of Wenger. He just isn't building the type of quality team or depth that can sustain competitiveness in four competitions a year. This has been obvious for at least the past four seasons, with late drops in quality and relatively early exits in the knock-out stage of the Champions League (as well as the Caring and FA cups). Top teams need quality in the starting 11, but also decent backups. Do we have that? There was no obvious backup to RVP last season except for the short loan spell of Henry. And this showed at  times, when his productivity went down around Christmas and at the end of the campaign. And this year we have only one impact player off the bench -- Walcott, who seems destined to leave in January or June. Why? Wenger wants to promote a youth-first policy in recent seasons, but those youth do develop and then walk out the door.

There is no need to reiterate the list, but to say three of those departures were under 26 when they left. Look at the team this year. At first, there was the belief that we finally had that depth (and I was one of those touting this for a time). But upon further reflection, it just isn't the case. We do have three good half-backs for the first time in ages, but if Sagna or Gibbs is out, we have serious problems on the defensive wings. Jenkinson has become a decent second option of the right, but looked really average against the Swans (including the two common practice of retreating backwards which has become endemic to the squad in recent games). On the left, we either play the defensive liability Santos or move Vermaelen over. When we move forward, the notion that we have enough midfielders has itself been challenged. That would not be the case if we had kept Song, but with him gone we only have Arteta and Coquelin as effective defensive midfielders. 

This has put considerable pressure on Cazorla and Wilshire to create, and teams know that not giving them space tends to take the wheels out of the Arsenal attack. If Diaby comes back it will help, but it again highlights Wenger's short-sightedness. And Ramsey just isn't good enough right now (as I've argued in previous posts). Moving forward, we clearly have a dearth of strikers -- particularly as Podolski has looked very average in the central role, and sometimes on the wing, Gervinho seems unwilling or unable to cross on the wings and is not the kind of center forward we need and Walcott is still inconsistent (and arguably unconvincing in the central role). Giroud is starting to come good, but needs better service and we just don't have enough players that cross well. Some of these problems can be addressed in the next window, but why weren't they addressed over the summer. 

As a quick corollary to this, Wenger tends to stick with players who are underperforming for far too long and Ramsey is the latest case of this. There seems to be a commitment to playing him, even on the wings, where he just isn't effective. There also is the unfortunate reality that Ox has seen a dramatic drop in form this term and I don't believe that is Wenger's fault, though I would have liked to see him get more time at Ramsey's expense earlier. This lack of depth not only hurts us throughout the long season, but at the end of games and this year we have not found those late winners that won us so many games last term. The last two Swans goals came as Arsenal seemed to get tired and run out of ideas.
 
3. Tactics:
I am not a master of formation, but it is clear that beyond the above-mentioned problem -- of playing our midfielders out of position and isolating Cazorla in a way that undermines his talent -- we should occasionally be experimenting with alternative formations: either the 4-4-2 or move likely 4-2-3-1. The 4-3-3 that Wenger likes to play just doesn't make sense given that our wingers like to move into the middle rather than cross to our new aerial threat and we are getting clogged in the middle, rarely getting the ball through to the final third with any real purpose. In the Swansea game, this became obvious as Cazorla, Walcott and Ox were giving the ball away regularly under Swan's pressure. There was not enough movement among those without the ball, we were incredibly predictable and we rarely got crosses in, even during the 10-15 minutes of the second half when we did dominate possession. Wenger seems unwilling to change tactics much and this is a serious problem. As I mentioned in a previous post, just look at the second leg of the AC Milan tie last season to see how formation shifts can have a profound impact on productivity. Given the squad that we have and how they play, I just don't see the 4-3-3 working, except against squads that play a more open game (like Fulham and a 10-man Tottenham). Many have critiqued Mancini in recent months, but at least he has the balls to try something else (of course it failed miserably against Ajax, but I digress). 
  
4. Motivation:    
Many will disagree with this last comment if it were made on Bleacher Report, but I do believe that Wenger is not doing enough to motivate his team. I'm not sure if this was ever his strength, but one has to assume that a coach that leads a team to an undefeated domestic campaign has that talent. But in recent years that motivation has been lacking and this year it is worse than ever. When this team is at their best, they are extremely dangerous and exciting to watch. But too often they are playing as if they just don't care. That was obvious against the Swans and Aston Villa, but also in a couple of the Champions League games, against Manchester United and for stretches of the Chelsea match (as well as Norwich). In fact, besides the Southampton game, I don't believe we have had many games where we played well from beginning to end. Even in games where we were ahead 2-0 (Fulham and Schalke), we looked fragile and gave back those leads. We have had few late comebacks this season, except the exciting Reading Capital One match, and really do seem like a mid-table team at the moment. Cazorla has had a drop in form and Podolski disappears for large parts of games. Most troubling to me at the moment is the fact the team seems to be playing as a bunch of individuals with little link-up play, tons of bad passes and lost possession and no clear leadership anywhere on the pitch. Why aren't the players yelling at each other? What is the constant look of forlorn we see? And why the hell is everyone so tired (besides the aforementioned lack of depth)? 

At the top level, you need the talent, but motivation and player management is another key. Sure Mancini crashed our of the Champions League for a second year running, but they are a mere three points behind Manchester United and can grasp the lead this Sunday. He has the opposite problem of Wenger, but I believe has done a good job of keeping most of his players happy (foregoing the impossible Balotelli). Ferguson is the master motivator and I believe this is also true of the Special One, and the most successful four-year manager in history (Guardiola). What can we say about Wenger over the past seven years? His team have missed opportunities, faded late and lost winnable games on a regular basis. His best players are leaving. And he seems stubborn when it comes to transfer policy, taking player or fan criticism and changing tactics. Most troubling of all is the way in which he has lowered the bar at Arsenal over the past several seasons, with fourth place in the EPL now "like a trophy."

Anyone else in the EPL, including Ferguson in my estimation, would have already been sacked for not winning any silverware in over seven years. But too many Arsenal fans, and the board, seem to be willing to give Wenger a pass for the foreseeable future. That may have changed this week, but it will take a big push from people besides the asinine Piers Morgan to get Wenger out. I love the guy, but it's time to part ways and start the rebuilding process (before it's too late) ...