Jason Garrett is One of the Worst/Most Overrated Coaches in History

So I've been away for a while, but after watching the Sunday night NFL game this evening, and the Dallas Cowboys over the past several seasons, I had to vent about a point I have made to friends for a few years now - Jason Garrett is not only a bad coach but one of the worst I've seen. To wit, he has had two really talented quarterbacks and excellent supporting casts at his disposal for much of his 10 seasons in charge, but compiled a record of 82-63 (made worse by the mediocre level of most of the NFC East over the period), with two excellent seasons padding those numbers. He has had only four winning records over those 10 years, finishing 8-8 on three separate occasions, winning only two playoff games (and losing three) in that decade in charge. And, though I could not find specific statistics to support this, has a long history of losing close games - both in the regular season and playoffs, often through bad decision-making and clock management. 

Tonight epitomized all that is wrong with him as a coach in close games. The Cowboys were down 4 and driving toward what could well have been a winning TD. At second and 3 with less than 1:30 left, and inside the 15-yard line he elected to run Ezekiel Elliott, one of the best running backs in the league, but a player who had been stuffed all night (his yards per carry for the night was 2.4 yards), not once but twice. I understand trying to run some time off the clock, but do it on first or second down (the first run was thus okay, though not great). But on third down? What in the hell was he thinking?

Not only did Elliott not get the first down, he lost yards on third down and then put incredible pressure on Dak, who had a spectacular night, to get the first down on fourth down. A great play from a Vikings cornerback stopped the Cowboys quarterback from doing so and the Cowboys ultimately lost the game by four points. At 5-4 and with a much tougher schedule over the last seven games than an Eagles side they are now tied with at the top of the NFC East, there is a strong chance they will miss the playoffs yet again. 

Please, Jerry Jones, finally do the right thing and get rid of Garrett now. And while you're at it, please hand a pink slip to yourself. You've been trying to prove you could win without Jimmy Jones for 25 years now and though you've made yourself and the league boatloads of money, let's admit you have failed miserably at putting a winner on the field every Sunday. Garrett has to go if we are not to waste the incredible talent and thus opportunity to win that is now at our disposal. Jason, if Jerry won't do it, axe yourself ...

Denver Give Peyton Manning More than a Watch as His Departing Gift

Peyton Manning has had an illustrious career. It is hard to argue that claim. And yet his record in the playoffs and the drop-off in performance in those games has always been a mark on his record and the key aspect in those who critique him. With a second ring in four trips to the Super Bowl and the possibility he will become only the second quarterback in NFL history to exit as a champion (alongside Broncos’ President John Elway), has he erased his naysayers? Not completely, of course, given the number of one and dones his teams have suffered throughout his career. And yet he finishes with a winning record in the playoffs (14-13), even in his playoff record with nemesis Tom Brady, with the record for combined regular season and playoff victories (an even 200) and a whole host of other records.

In the playoffs, Manning has thrown for 7,339 yards, completed 63.2 percent of his passes and thrown 40 touchdowns against 25 interceptions (with only two of those touchdowns in the three playoff games this season). With the win yesterday, he became the oldest quarterback to win a Super Bowl, while also being the Super Bowl quarterback with the worst rating ever. Regardless of your take on Manning, it is clear that he is probably leaving on a high and will be a first ballot inductee into the Hall of Fame. Even among those who were not huge fans of Manning throughout his career, most were pushing for him to get that second Super Bowl ring, which now ties him with his brother Eli and makes them the winningest quarterback brothers in history.

Of course, this game was not won by Manning or the Broncos offense. In fact, their ineptitude was almost record-setting. They only converted one of 14 third down conversions in the game, and that one was on the first attempt. Manning finished 13 for 23 for 141 yards, with no touchdown passes, an interception and a lost fumble that almost turned the game around. He was also sacked five times for a loss of 37 yards. The running game was slightly better, with C. J. Anderson rushing 23 times for 90 yards with the game-clinching touchdown he scored with an incredible final lunge. Ronnie Hillman only carried five times for 0 yards, meaning the Broncos stayed under 100 for the game. Sanders was the key receiver with six catches for 83 yards, while Demaryius Thomas continued his postseason struggles with one catch for eight yards and some key drops.

Denver were more impressive with their special teams, with Andre Caldwell returning two kickoffs for 42 yards and Jordan Norwood scampering 61 yards on the one punt return of the game (of the seven Carolina kicks). Brandon McManus was also key, making all three of his field goal attempts (though the longest was 34 yards). Of course, it was the defense that was the difference in this one, stopping the highest scoring offense in football this season. How did they do it? Well it all started with Cam Newton going 18 for 41 for 265 yards with no touchdowns, an interception and two lost fumbles. He did rush six times for 45 yards, but the long was 14 and Denver did an excellent job of containing him in the pocket. They also sacked him six times for a combined 64 yards, pressuring him an incredible 21 times – second in Super Bowl history behind the 25 that Jim Kelley faced in his loss to the Cowboys.

Denver also benefitted from John Elway’s dedication to winning on both sides of the game, first taking the team to the big dance with an explosive offense and then rebuilding with a defensive team that is one of the best in the history of the sport. After Cam was taken first in the 2011 draft, Denver took Von Miller second. Von Miller won the matchup in a big way yesterday, named MVP after his 6 tackles, 2 ½ sacks and two forced fumbles set the tone for the Denver victory. The second wonder stroke was nabbing DeMarcus Ware from the Cowboys, giving Denver the dual threat that no team seemed to be able to deal with. Ware finished the game with five tackles and two sacks, finally winning the elusive ring his career seemed to warrant. But neither of these two stars did it alone. Danny Trevathan led the team with 8 tackles (four solo), T. J. Ward had 7 (including two that stopped the Panthers on third down), Chris Harris chipped in with five tackles (all solo) and a sack and, after a shaky start and some boneheaded penalties, Talib finished the game better, keeping the Panthers receivers from finding any route free from the incredible on-on-one coverage. And the rest of the team chipped in throughout, keeping the Panthers offense off-balance and unable to build any momentum beyond two decent drives.

Elway and the Broncos’ other officials should also be commended for taking a chance on two coaches who had been fired from their last jobs. First was head coach Gary Kubiak, the first to win a Super Bowl with the same team as a player and coach. Second was Wade Phillips, a man who had been out of football but arguably just created the best playoff performance by an NFL defense in history. He mixed up his coverage, confused Bill Belichick by blitzing less and then shut down the best offense in the league. Beating the Steelers, Patriots and then Panthers on the way to another Super Bowl title is pretty extraordinary stuff. In the end, Carolina did rush the ball for 188 yards on 27 carries, but the long was 15 yards and they stopped them when they needed to on all but one occasion throughout the game. Cam, by the way, was by far the leading rusher with his 45 yards, 16 more than Stewart and 19 more than Whittacker. 

On the other side of the ball, Carolina were the architects of their own demise, though the Denver defense was at the heart of their problems. They did gain more yards than Denver (315 to 194), more first downs (21 to a paltry 11), ran more plays (75 to 56) and led in time of possession (32:47 to 27:13). But they also led in turnovers allowed (4 to 2), penalties (12-102 to 6-51) and failed to score a defensive touchdown for the first game in a while, while Denver did score a critical one that built their early lead. It is thus easy to blame the loss on Newton, who has played with such pomp and circumstance this season, most assumed he and his high-powered offense would steamroll the Broncos. That was not the case yesterday, and Cam played a big part, throwing an ill-advised interception, failing to get down to recover the fumble late that essentially ended the contest and fumbling another time. He was throwing the ball high early and never really got into a rhythm other than two drives in the game. But blaming Newton does overlook the fact his offensive line failed him miserably, his running backs didn’t seem to get many yards after initial hits, his receivers dropped a number of passes and the defense made mistakes at key moments that helped the stuttering Denver offense to still post 17 of their 24 points.

Looking back at the preview I wrote of the game (http://sidelinesapp.com/item/super-bowl-preview-denvers-chance-for-the-upset/), I wondered how close I was in predicting the five things that would have to occur for Denver to win (I predicted a final score of 21-17, so not too far off there). Let’s take a look:

1. Manning’s Last Stand: I argued that Manning would have to make some plays and not turn the ball over for the Broncos to win and he did make a few plays, though he did turn the ball over twice (with the interception costing them at least three points). Manning was controlled throughout the game, moved the Broncos enough to get them to 24 points and did convert a two-point completion with might very well be his final pass as a professional. His overall numbers for the game were pretty meager, with a postseason QBR of 26.1 amplifying the point, but he did what he needed to to win and was not really given the chance to shine, with Kubiak preferring to rely on his defense and running the clock down through a run-first approach. I’ll give myself half credit for this one.

2. Running Attack: I argued that the Broncos would need to be effective in the running game to have any chance, and while 90 yards rushing is certainly nothing to write home about, it was just enough for the victory. 3.21 yards per carry is below their haul throughout the season and explained why they were so ineffective on third down, but some late runs helped run time off the clock and get the Broncos into a position to win. I’ll again give myself half credit for this one.

3. Denver D: my main argument for why the Broncos could win was their #1 defense throughout the season and playoffs. If they could largely subdue Ben Roethlisberger and Tom Brady in consecutive games, couldn’t they beat up a quarterback who was the MVP, but still doesn’t have the skill set from the pocket of the two seasoned Super Bowl winners? The answer was yes, in a big way, and their +2 turnover differential, six sacks, 21 pressures, solid tackling and tight man-to-man coverage shut down the most potent offense in the league this season. Why people ignored their impressive stats this year was really beyond me, given how poor their offense was most weeks, and the strength of that defense was on full display in this game. I will thus give myself full credit for this prediction.

4. Keeping Cam Contained: in line with the last point, they needed to keep Cam contained, and while he did rush for 45 yards on six carries, they kept him from escaping their grasp throughout much of the game. There were the aforementioned stats on sacks, pressures and the three turnovers, but the real key appeared to be the man coverage that just didn’t give Cam anywhere to throw the ball. By the second half, he looked like a rookie again, unable to comprehend where the brilliance of the first 18 games of the season had disappeared to. That was partially on Cam, but really on a swarming Denver defense that seemed to blitz at the perfect moments throughout the game. A plus one here as well.

5. Luck: finally, I argued luck would play a role in the game, and there were a few instances where that was the case. The first came on a challenge that Carolina seemed certain to win, giving them the ball at the 45-yard-line, first and 10. Instead the officials saw something different than the rest of us did and stayed with the incorrect incompletion call. Second was the missed field goal from Gano that seemed to stem Carolina gaining momentum at that point in the game. Third, was a great disparity in penalties. Denver had some key early penalties but then improved their discipline and were given the benefit of the doubt on some close coverage calls in the second half, while the penalties just kept piling up on Carolina. Fourth was the fact Denver was first to the three fumbles that could have gone the other way, but for the bounce of the ball (and maybe a little more hunger). Fifth were a couple of potential additional picks of Manning that were dropped by the Panther’s D. And finally, though maybe this isn’t luck at all, was the impressive job of kicking game coverage by the Broncos. Of eight punts (for 367 yards), only three were returned, for a net of two yards! And they were not hurt in kickoff returns either, a problem in some previous games, with the same 42 yards they earned on two returns. Luck is a funny thing, but I’ll take the one point here as well for a total of 4 of 5.

In the end, Peyton got his dream ending, Ward got his ring, Kubiak and Phillips got redemption, Elway led a team to another ring in a wholly different way, Von Miller showed he might rival J. J. Watt for best defensive player of the moment and the Panthers got a reality check that might just help them in the long run. Cam Newton showed an unfortunate lack of class in his abbreviated postgame interview, but one believes he will come back stronger from this loss and ultimately win the ring his unique talents deserve. And so another NFL season is in the books and we have a few months before the media hype machine starts churning all over again (or at least a few minutes on that front).

Should the Peyton Manning HGH Story Be Getting More Scrutiny?

Peyton Manning is at what we might call the “pantheon” level of sports iconography. This makes almost everything he does okay and puts his reputation above the level of reproach. The fact he has only won one Super Bowl, that he is a shill for just about any product offered to him (including a pretty average pizza brand), that he so often lost to his closest rival Brady and that his skills set has been on the decline for two years seems to be ignored in exploring his overall position in the history of the sport. Sure, there has been criticism of his performance on the field this season, but never of the man himself. Don’t get be wrong, Peyton Manning is one of the greatest regular season quarterbacks in the history of the league and did solidify his legacy when he won his sole Super Bowl in 2007. He has ripped apart the record books and has a career rating of 96.5 (fourth on the all-time list), along with a 65.3% completion percentage, 539 TDs versus 251 INTs and 71,940 yards. In the nine years QBR statistics have been kept, Manning had a 78.91 average, forgoing the terrible 45 he garnered in this injury-plagued year. His overall regular season record is 186-79 and 45-12 since he moved to Denver, including a Super Bowl appearance in a record setting season two years ago. His playoff record of 11-13 is where many find the biggest hole in his CV and why talk of him as the “greatest ever” seems suspect at best.

The point is Manning has had an incredible career that could, if things go his way, end with another trip to the Super Bowl to end this troubled season. Yet that is not the biggest story about Manning. A story from Al Jazeera over the holidays claimed that he might have taken HGH to help him on the road to recovery after the neck injuries that almost derailed his career. He came back from that injury, of course, moved on from the Colts to the Broncos and went on to have one of the best, if not the best), single seasons by a quarterback in NFL history. That that year didn’t end in a Super Bowl triumph but a blowout loss to the Seahawks took some of the luster from his comeback, but might also have allayed some questions about how exactly he did make it back with such aplomb. In any case, the story from Al Jazeera was quickly dismissed by everyone from Fox News to Manning to the league itself. And then, in one of the more bizarre events in recent years, the story died completely. There was no mention of it when Manning reentered the game and led the Broncos to victory last Sunday and little mention of it on sports radio or television since.

So what gives? Is the well-respected, corporate-sponsored Manning simply being given a pass? Why, for example, has no one besides The Nation even mentioned that he hired a guy named Ari Fleischer, yeah THAT Ari Fleischer, to serve as his PR representative on the matter? Why has no one followed up on the fact that Manning did admit a “private” package did arrive for his wife from the suspect Guyer Institute? The first thing so many athletes we later found out did cheat do is deny the allegations with indignant reproach. That is exactly what Manning did, the first time anyone has seen this guy angry since Brady ripped apart his Broncos last season – and that ire was largely covered by his helmet. Manning might very well be innocent of these charges but, given the level of cheating across all professional sports from bicycling and track to football and baseball, shouldn’t this story have at least a little more life to it? Fox News and others disparaged the story because of its source, claiming Al Jazeera is a hack, leftist outlet that is doing Al Gore’s bidding. While there is a connection between the two, and Al Jazeera has been criticized for some of its biases, it also was arguably the company that gave us the best coverage of the Iraq war, of the Arab Spring and what is really going on in the Middle East.

Should more questions be asked of the story and of Manning? Is it beyond the scope of reason that an aging quarterback looking for one more Super Bowl ring might dip into the alluring world of Human Growth Hormones along the road to recovery? Why would the originator of the story have lied when he did not know he was being taped only to change his story when he discovered he was? Again, I’m not saying he ever took HGH, I just do think a double standard appears to be emerging. And I have to wonder if race, corporate and NFL interests and his reputation have anything to do with it …

NFL Week 10 Wrap: Cowboys Season Unravels; Seattle in Trouble; Panthers & Pats Keep on Trucking

The Games

The week got started on Thursday night with the classless return of Rex Ryan and his Buffalo Bills to Met Life Stadium and a matchup with the Jets team that rightfully sacked him after another awful season. Ryan once seemed like a nice guy who had a big mouth but a kind heart; he increasingly looks like a “character” or maybe even “caricature” of an NFL coach. Sure he had the last laugh as the Bills held off a late Jets comeback to win 22-17, but naming Enemkpali as the co-captain (the guy who broke Geno Smith’s jaw) showed the kind of guy Ryan really is. On Sunday morning, two games with big ramifications took place in Wisconsin and Tampa. The Detroit Lions finally ended a 24-year losing streak at Green Bay, winning 18-16 after a last second 51-yard field goal by the Packers fell well short and the Cowboys lost for the seventh game in a row, again ceding a fourth quarter lead to fall 10-6. Dez Bryant appeared to be interfered with on the end zone interception that ended it, but probably could have put up more of an effort to snatch a ball that seemed very catchable. If the penalty had been called, the Cowboys would have had the ball at the one yard line with plenty of time to run at least two or three plays.

The Eagles blew a lead against the Dolphins after their starting quarterback Sam Bradford went out with a shoulder injury and concussion, losing 20-19. Good ole Mark Sanchez came in to “un”save the day (a habit of his as the anti-Super Man), throwing an interception in the end zone when they could have won with a field goal.  The Chicago Bears continued their recent renaissance, crushing the Rams 37-13 behind a big day from Jay Cutler (19 of 24 for 248 yards and 3 touchdowns). Todd Gurley was held to 45 yards on 12 rushes as Nick Foles had another average day, only going 17/36 for 200 yards and a pick. Both teams moved to 4-5 in what is increasingly shaping up as a packed Wild Card chase. Meanwhile the Jags tagged the Ravens for another last second loss, this time on a field goal with no time left to win it 22-20. Flacco had a big day with 316 yards on 34 of 45 passes, but had two picks to undermine his three touchdown tosses.

The Panthers moved to 9-0 after struggling early against the 2-7 Titans, with Cam Newton putting in another efficient performance on the way to the 27-10 win. And the New Orleans Saints continued to confound with their play from one week to the next, getting absolutely demolished 47-14 by a Redskins team that moved to 4-5. Kurt Cousins was the hero, throwing for four touchdowns and 324 yards on only 20 completed passes (out of 25 throws), while Drew Brees had an off day, tossing two interceptions and only completing 19 of 28 for 209 yards.

In the late games, the Giants hosted the Patriots in a matchup that pitted one of the few coaches in the league with a winning record against Bill Belichick; with Tom Coughlin 3-0, including the two Super Bowl rings he stole from his old friend. This was the game of the season so far, back and forth throughout before a 54-yard field goal with 1 second left gave the Patriots the 27-26 win. The Giants (now 5-5) will look back at a few plays that cost them the game, including a sack of Manning in the fourth quarter that cost them a shot at three points, the overturned touchdown catch by Odell Beckham, poor time management that gave Brady plenty of time for the comeback, a missed interception on the final Patriots drive that would have sealed it and failing to stop the Pats on a fourth and 10. It is the third game already this season the Giants could, and probably should, have won. The Patriots, on the other hand, will feel good at 9-0, having essentially already won the AFC East, and having beaten one of their fiercest rivals in the league. But they lost key receiver Edelman in the first half and will hope he doesn’t have an extended stay on the sideline. In the other late games, the Chiefs made it two losses in a row for the Broncos (29-13) as Peyton Manning played one of the worst games of his career before being benched. The Vikings dented the Raider’s playoff hopes with a 30-14 hiding that pushed them a game above the struggling Packers in the NFC North.

The Sunday night game saw Seattle hosting Arizona in a game that would go a long way to determining the winner of the NFC West. Arizona jumped out to a 19-0 lead, but a Seattle touchdown before halftime gave them a sliver of hope. After trading scores, Seattle’s defense stripped Carson Palmer on two straight possessions, scoring touchdowns on each turnover to forge ahead 29-25. Palmer then led the Cardinals on an 83-yard touchdown drive to retake the lead and then scored a long touchdown by Ellington on the next drive to punctuate the win, though they needed to recover an onside kick to preserve the final 39-32 win. Palmer threw for 363 yards and 3 touchdowns, though he also threw an interception and lost two fumbles. Russell Wilson, on the other hand, was 14-32 for 240 yards with a touchdown and a pick, earning a measly QBR of 13.8. At 4-5, Seattle is now in danger of missing out on the playoffs altogether, while the Cardinals have essentially wrapped up the NFC West. Monday night matched the 8-0 Bengals against the 3-5 Texans, and has often been the case in recent years, the Texans upset their Northern neighbors. The Bengals offense suddenly wilted under consistent pressure, only able to muster two first field goals in a dull 10-6 loss, with Bengal’s killer T. J. Yates coming on to lead the Texans on the game-winning fourth quarter drive.

Some thoughts on Week 10

Why Bad Teams Lose (and occasionally win anyway)

The Jets head coach Todd Bowles might want to take some lessons in math. After going for it on fourth down twice in the last six minutes inside their opponents 25, Bowles lost the game 22-17. Last time I checked, three + three = six, and thus a 23-22 win. On top of that was the inability to pound it in from the two or, from a different vantage point, to get the 13 yards they needed to take the lead after a blocked punt. Yet it wasn’t just Bowles decision making that cost the Jets, as Fitzpatrick had a below par game, the defense spotted the Bills a huge lead and a mix-up on fourth down cost them the game late. Detroit did their best to blow their game late against the Packers as well, after going up 8 points with a minute and a half left, their kicker missed his SECOND extra point of the game. The Packers then drove down the field and scored, only to just miss their own two-point conversion. The resulting onside kick headed toward the man the Lions would most trust to hold onto it (Calvin Johnson), though he somehow bumbled it and gave it to the Packers. Their short drive got it into field goal range, but the 51 yarder was side footed and the Lions won at Green Bay for the first time in three decades.

The loss of the day, though, goes to a coach who doesn’t seem to garner enough scrutiny, even as he appears to lose more close games than any other in the league. Jason Garrett has now overseen seven straight losses for a Cowboys team that came into the season as prohibitive Super Bowl favorites. Sure they lost their starting quarterback and best receiver, and then one of their top two running backs, but they have been either ahead or tied in the fourth quarter of six of those seven losses. The team has too many turnovers, too many penalties, too many key mistakes, poor time management, the inability to hold leads, a really average defense and a penchant for blowing games late. Garrett’s record as the head coach now stands at 43-38 and he has played a mere two playoff games, winning won (they probably should have lost) and losing one (they probably should have won). But let’s look more closely at those seasons. In his first three, the Cowboys finished 8-8 and one game out of the playoffs. In each of those seasons, they played an NFC East rival with the chance to seal the division and a playoff birth in the final game. And they lost each of those games. Last year, he did lead them to a division title and a playoff birth, but they were lucky to beat the Lions after a bad call and really should have won the game against the Packers (even as he had no control over “the catch that wasn’t.”). Garrett cannot be fired after all the injury woes the Cowboys have suffered, but I think there is a strong argument that this should be his final season in charge of the underperforming Dallas Cowboys. Given Jerry Jones’ decision making since his ex-friend Jimmy Johnson left, one assumes he will sign him to a lifetime contract after they just miss out on the playoffs by losing the final game of the season.

Is Peyton Manning Done?

Peyton Manning had one of his worst games as a professional quarterback on Sunday, going 5 for 20 for 35 yards and 4 (no, that is not a typo) interceptions. He was also sacked twice. It was such a bad performance Manning earned a quarterback rating (not QBR) of 0.0. It has of course emerged today that he has a plantar fascia issue that affected his performance, but serious questions must still be asked. Overall this season, he has 9 touchdown passes versus 17 interceptions, has a completion percentage under 60 (59.9), is only averaging 6.77 yards per attempt and has a QBR (45.0) that ranks 29^th. The truth is, besides the impressive game against the Packers, Manning has been among the most mediocre (or bad, if you like) quarterbacks in the league since the middle of last season. His body is falling apart on him, his throws (which were never tight spirals) are like flailing ducks half the time and he is getting close to doubling his touchdown total with interceptions.

It used to be that teams could win championships with a dominant defense and a passable offense, but those days appear to be long gone. Seattle is the closest we’ve seen, but their dominance over the past few years has owed a lot to one of the better statistical quarterbacks in the league and a dominant rusher in Marshall Lynch. Since that offense’s performance has declined this year, so have their fortunes. The Broncos might have flattered to deceive with their early start, but this does not look like a team that can win a playoff game, much less go to and win the Super Bowl.

Maybe a few week’s rest will allow Manning to come back stronger, but his performance in this game and the late interception that cost them the comeback against the Colts, together with his overall performance this season, fails to give one much confidence that he is doing much else this year besides breaking some more records and, in a small way, tarnishing the tail end of a spectacular career. The solitary Super Bowl victory is the presumptive reason he returned, but I believe that ship sailed two seasons ago in a Super Bowl that was over before it had really begun. On a more positive note, many great quarterbacks from Dan Marino to Dan Fouts to Richard Todd (just kidding) would have gladly taken that one ring and called it a career.

Are these Panthers for Real?

The Panthers now stand at 9-0 and in firm control of the NFC South. If they keep playing like this, they should also take home field advantage into the playoffs. Last year, their 7-8-1 record led many to question whether division winners should even get an automatic spot in the playoffs, before they beat the Cardinals in the Wild Card game 27-16 and gave the Seahawks a scare before ending up on the wrong side of a 31-17 scoreline. And lest us forget, this is the same team that went 12-4 two years ago before losing to the Niners 23-10 in the divisional round. So, are the Panthers now a serious Super Bowl contender? They have had some quality wins, including a 27-23 road win over the Seahawks, a 27-16 victory over the Eagles, a 29-26 win over the Colts and a 37-29 victory over the Packers. But those wins are looking a little less impressive as time goes on and we see flaws in each of those other teams. Their other opponents have been more suspect, but nine wins in a row is nine wins in a row. Looking forward, they face the Redskins (H), Cowboys (A), Saints (A), Falcons (H), Giants (A), Falcons again (A) and Bucs (H). They could easily fall back into the pack if they let up at all, but those are all winnable games.

In total defense, the Panthers rank a middle-of-the-road 11^th, the same position they earn in points allowed per game (20.4). They are 12^th in total passing yards allowed and 13^th against the run. Offensively, they rank 16^th in total yards; 27^th in passing yards per game (216.6) but tied for first with Buffalo in rushing (142.3 yards per game). Yet even with those yardage numbers, they are fourth in points scored per game (28.5), behind only the Patriots, Arizona and Cincinnati. And that is the number that matters most. One reason they have scored so many points on a relatively average offense is their plus six turnover margin, good for third in the league behind only the Giants and Patriots. The incredible statistic here is they are tied for 17^th in giveaways, with 12, but have forced the fourth most takeaways including a league-leading 13 interceptions (tied with two others).

Cam Newton might be one of the biggest reasons for the impressive first half of the season, though one might be surprised to learn that he is having his worst statistical season by just about any measure. His QBR (52.9) is the lowest in his five-year career, his completion percentage is down (53.7 versus 58.8 overall), his yards per carry (4.7) is below his career average of 5.4, and his yards per attempt (7.4), though better than the previous two season, is below his first two years. His TD/INT (14/9) is more or less on par with his career (91-63), though he has yet to lose a fumble this season. The difference then is his leadership skills and ability to play better when the game is on the line. Newton’s number do not put him among the elite quarterbacks in the league, at least this season, but there is still a perception among most football experts that he is now among the best in the league and has the tools to raise his game to the next level.

On the evidence so far, one would say the Panthers are for real, but might not be quite ready for the big time unless the defense improves and Newton plays marginally better going forward. On the other hand, if they keep getting key turnovers, continue to score at their current rate and play defense a little better, they could certainly go all the way.

Playoff Picture

It appears the playoff picture got a little murkier this week. For one, the Packers lost for the third game in a row and seem to be an offense without an identity. That appears to put the Carolina Panthers at the head of the pack out of the NFC, though I still wonder about their ability to get all the way to the Super Bowl, as mentioned above. In the AFC, the Broncos were so profligate offensively that the unthinkable happened – they benched Peyton Manning (after he completed one more pass (5) than interceptions (4) in his first 20 throws of the game). The Bengals finally lost. And the team that has represented the NFC in the past two Super Bowls is now 4-5; Seattle in case you’ve been living in a cave without Internet or cable reception.

The Patriots are still the cream of the AFC and, realistically, of the NFL, and the competition around them seems to be crumbling. Is a second Super Bowl appearance in a row in the offing? The Steelers could still have something to say about it, though I am doubtful Big Ben can carry them far enough on his rather sizable shoulders. The Bengals are still 8-1 after a one-off loss on Monday night, but have never proven themselves in the playoffs. And Denver is not moribund quite yet. One other team to watch might be an odd choice, but the Colts have shown some of their old magic on occasion this season, and are really shooting to finally get past the Patriots and to the big game.

In the NFC, the Panthers are the only remaining undefeated team and, barring a late season collapse, could be playing all their playoff games at home. The Vikings are in the ascendancy as well, and now have a one game lead over the Packers after winning their fifth in a row. With their running game and defense, decent play from Bridgewater should keep them in the conversation for a potential Super Bowl appearance. Meanwhile, the up and down Giants have arguably the best quarterback in the NFC at present and with all of their offensive weapons could be a team to watch, assuming they even make the playoffs. And don’t count out those Cardinals, who have the most explosive offense in the NFC, if not the league.

At present, I still like the Patriots to come out of the AFC and will switch from the Packers to the Cardinals for the moment. There is still a lot of football to go this season, though, and things can change quickly.

NFL Week 8 Wrap: Seattle and Saints Get Back to .500; Dallas Crisis Worsens; Bengals, Pats, Denver and Carolina Remain Undefeated

The Games

Many were starting to talk about a Miami Dolphins renaissance after the team won their first two games after axing coach Joe Philbin, but the Patriots brought the expectations back down to earth after absolutely pummeling the Dolphins 36-7, to move to 7-0 on the season. In the early Sunday game, the Chiefs moved to 3-5 after putting an equally impressive pounding on the reeling Lions 45-10. Apparently changing an offensive coordinator hours before taking a flight across the Atlantic is not enough to solve the Lions woes. A series of close 1 p.m. games came down to the final moments, with the Saints, Ravens, Vikings and Bengals all able to pull out nail biters. The Chargers lost on a last second field to the Ravens, who have suffered all six losses this season with a chance to drive for the tying or winning score in their final possession. Both now stand at 2-6 and pretty much out of playoff contention.  The Vikings scored 13 in the fourth quarter to sneak past the 2-5 Bears 23-20 and move to 5-2. The Giants and Saints engaged in a shootout to end all shootouts (more on this below), but some questionable calls by the Giants down the stretch and a costly penalty on a late punt meant they ultimately lost 52-49 on a last second 50-yard kick from a Saints spot kicker making his first attempt for the team.

In Pittsburgh, the return of Roethlisberger was derailed by an injury to running back Bell as the Bengals moved to 7-0 for the first time in franchise history (16-10). In a battle of after thoughts, the Texans moved to 3-5 after beating AFC South rivals Tennessee 20-6. The Niners season continued to stall as they lost to the surging St. Louis Rams 27-6 after another outing to forget for Kaepernick (though he did avoid throwing any interceptions). The Rams got 100 yards from Todd Gurley yet again and Nick Foles was efficient if not spectacular going 14 of 23 for 191 yards and a touchdown. The Falcons, on the other hand, took another step backwards from their early start, losing 23-20 to Tampa Bay in overtime. Atlanta has lost two of its last three and their offensive production has declined rather precipitously. Meanwhile, the Cardinals ran an impressive second half, where they outscored the Browns 24 to 0, to a 34-20 win, and moved to 6-2.

There were only two late games, the Jets at Oakland and the Seahawks at Dallas. The Jets fell behind 20-6 at halftime after losing their starting quarterback, before a late comeback was derailed by several head scratchers from new head coach Todd Bowles, who punted the ball on fourth and 7 with 3:19 left down by 14 points before running a draw on third and 21 in his next possession. However, trying to win with one of the stupidest quarterbacks in all of football is tough and Geno Smith’s performance appeared to be the proximate cause of their ultimate 34-20 loss to the Raiders (even as he went 27 of 42 for 254 yards, with 2 TDs and a very costly INT). Smith was knocked out for a couple plays in their final drive and Fitzpatrick had to come back in with an injured left thumb f before Geno returned to throw three straight incompletes to seal the win for the Raiders, though his final throw at the goal line really should have been caught by Brandon Marshall. The Seahawks and Cowboys played out a surprising defensive battle, given the Dallas struggles on that side of the ball most of the year, with Seattle finally putting together two quality quality drives in a row down 12-10 late in the fourth quarter to take a 13-12 lead with 1:06 left on the clock. The Cowboys were out of timeouts when Cassel started the drive on his own 20, having gone 13 for 22 for under 100 yards against the tough Seattle defense. Besides earning a 15-yard roughing the passer penalty, Cassel looked like the backup he is on that final drive, with three poor throws, a sack and a knocked down pass on fourth and 21. The Cowboys are now in real danger of missing out on the playoffs after such high expectations coming into the season while the Seahawks moved back to 500.

Sunday night brought us another marques matchup, pitting the undefeated Denver Broncos and their impressive defense against the undefeated Packers and the best quarterback in football. Defense won this game big for the Broncos, as they cruised to a 29-10 victory, smothering Aaron Rodgers while Manning had his best game of the season. Monday night brought us the last undefeated team in the NFC, the Panthers, versus a struggling Colts team at 3-4, with their star quarterback Andrew Luck suddenly looking incredibly ordinary with the 30^th QBR in the league (38.3), completing only 56.2 percent of his passes for a 6.66 average with 11 TDs versus 9 INTs. Rumours claim he might be playing with bruised or broken ribs and maybe that explains the problems, but it has certainly been noteworthy that they have been a better team through the first seven games when he was on the bench. Luck continued his struggles through the first three quarters, only accruing 30 yards in passing offense. Cam Newton was not that much better in the pouring rain of the first half, but two strong drives led the Panthers to a 23-6 lead midway through the fourth quarter. The missed extra point on the last Carolina score gave the Colts a whiff of hope and suddenly Luck came alive, leading the team to 17 unanswered points and overtime. A number of calls went in their favor in the final drive of regulation and Luck was fortunate not to have his final pass before the tying field goal dropped rather than picked off in the end zone.

The Colts won the coin toss and a fine return to the 42 left them with a short field. Luck ran the ball on three straight plays and got them close to field goal range before a fine tackle on third down left them with a 50-yarder to take the lead. Vinatieri put it through the uprights to take a 26-23 lead. Newton then completed a long pass on the subsequent drive before a drop by Ted Ginn Jr. cost Newton and the Panthers a sure touchdown. The drop did not faze Newton, however, as he completed two straight passes on the way to a game tying field goal. On the next possession, Luck’s luck ran out as a deflected pass was intercepted and the Panthers went on to win on a 52-yard field goal. The Panthers moved to 7-0 while the Colts fell to 3-5, though they are sharing the lead in the AFC South.

Some thoughts on Week 8

A Shootout to Remember

In the third highest scoring game in the history of the NFL the Saints kicked a 50-yard field goal on the final play to beat the Giants 52-49. It was the first field goal attempt of a game where Drew Brees threw a record-tying seven touchdown passes for the Saints and Eli Manning six for the Giants. Brees went on 40/50 for 511 (without a single sack) and Manning went 30 of 41 for 350. The game included a number of records, including the seven touchdown passes, the combined 13 touchdown passes and for Brees, who now passed Manning for most games with at least five touchdown passes (10), while he became only the second QB in history to throw more than one 500 yard game. Among the other crazy stats: four running backs averaged over five yards a carry, 17 receivers caught passes, among the 18 accepted penalties, seven gave the Giants first downs, there were 64 first downs, 861 net passing yards and 1,030 combined total yards. For the Giants, it was yet another game they probably should have won – or at least got to overtime. A missed catch by an inexplicably open receiver on first down on their final drive led to a quick three and out and a punt sent right at a dangerous returner, who took it across midfield and then got an additional 15 on one of the costliest facemask penalties you will ever see. On that final Giants drive, after the missed completion and only five yards on second down, a run up the middle might have been enough to push extra time, but the Giants went for it and failed. Together with the two late collapses to start the season, the Giants have missed out on a chance to take control of the NFC East. The Saints, on the other hand, have won four of their last five and are now back in the playoff hunt after looking abject early in the season. It was ironically their tight win over the Cowboys in overtime a few weeks back that appears to have turned their season around, while piling pressure on the Cowboys.

Injuries Continue to Pile Up

The NFL is a physical league and one expects injuries to occur every week. However, as debates about the violence of the game and the potential long-term effects on players of the hits they deliver and receive, several additional injuries stood out this week. Right before halftime in the Seattle Cowboys game, the Seahawks Ricardo Lockett was hit on a punt return and appeared knocked out on the field, before being carted off with in protective headgear (he has ligament damage to his neck). The Jets suffered a huge blow, as their highflying quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick was out with a left thumb injury in the first half, replaced by the floundering Geno Smith. Both are day-to-day going forward, though Fitzpatrick will have to have surgery at some point in the future. The Steelers suffered a devastating injury to running back Le’Veon Bell, whose knee was bent back on a tackle by Bengal’s defender Burfict, which tore his MCL (the Bengal defender appeared to celebrate the injury in an ugly footnote to a physical game). Other injuries include Reggie Bush of the Niners (knee), Donnell of the Giants (neck), Bears running back Forte (knee), Haden of the Browns (concussion), Lions standout receiver Calvin Johnson (ankle), Saints running back Khiry Robinson (lower leg) and, in an otherwise heartening afternoon, a torn Achilles for veteran Steve Smith of the Ravens, who might have had his last catch as a pro (moving him to 10^th on the all-time list).

The injury roster before this week even began is too long to recount here but includes the Chiefs losing Charles for the season, the Cowboys losing Romo and Bryant for the whole of this losing streak, the Steelers playing without Roethlisberger for several weeks and the Saints being without Brees for a couple of games. Injuries are to be expected, but there have been more to key players this season than in recent memory, derailing playoff teams and piling up the evidence that the long-term future of the sport might require some rules changes to stay viable.  

Peyton Silences Critics in Big Win

Manning is not the quarterback of two years ago, when the Broncos set all sorts of single season records on the way to a Super Bowl they ultimately lost. He might not even be the quarterback of last season who, for all his struggles, finished with 39 TD passes to 17 interceptions and 4,727 yards. And even as he again failed to secure a touchdown pass, and threw a pick, the 7-0 start for his Broncos team owes much to a night in which he completed 21 of his 29 passes for 340 yards (an impressive 11.7 average) and was not sacked. In the winning effort, Manning tied Brett Favre for most career victories at 186, and is certain to surpass that record in the coming weeks. I would still be worried about the overall dip this season, as he is still stuck on 7 TD tosses versus 11 interceptions, has his lowest completion percentage (62.8) since 2001, is on track to be sacked 27 times, has his worst quarterback rating since his rookie year (75.1) and a QBR of only 52.1 (21^st in the league at present). But this game will certainly quiet some of his loudest critics, at least for a week.

The Broncos also improved their running game, running for 160 yards on 34 carries. Yet it was the defense that really impressed, holding arguably the greatest quarterback in the league to 77 yards on 14 of 22 passing (with three sacks) and the running game to a combined 90 yards on 21 carries. Yes, 77 yards! Even losing the turnover battle 1-0, they were still able to pull off the convincing 29-10 victory, with the Packers scores coming after important Broncos penalties. With this defense, a decent running game and a more controlled Manning, Denver has to be considered as a team that could surprise everyone and get back to the Super Bowl to give their quarterback a final shot at a second ring.

Separating the Pretenders from the Contenders

There is little doubt the Packers, Patriots, Broncos and Bengals should be teams to reckon with when the playoffs finally arrive. Beyond them, questions start to emerge. The Bengals impressed on the defensive end as Dalton had his first bad game of the year, but was still able to lead the team down the field for the go ahead touchdown on the way to a 16-10 victory over a Steelers team that finally got Big Ben back on the field. One has to believe this Bengals team is one that has real potential to do some damage this year throughout the playoffs. The Steelers, on the other hand, might struggle, even with Big Ben. This is made more troubling by a tough schedule the rest of the way and the prospects of facing either the Patriots or Denver if they want to get back to the AFC Championship Game. The Raiders look like a team that could slot into a Wild Card with some luck while the Jets are suddenly vulnerable after potentially losing Ryan Fitzpatrick for the foreseeable future. The Colts are, of course, still in the mix, as are Miami and Buffalo, given relative parity beyond the top teams. But none of those teams seem to be in the mix to represent their conference in Super Bowl L.

In the NFC, the Packers lost their first game of the season to the stalwart Denver defense, with some questions emerging about an offense that appears to be sputtering in recent weeks, though they might still be the cream of the NFC crop. The Panthers are now the only undefeated team in the division and suddenly become part of the Super Bowl conversation. This puts the Falcons in a precarious position of sorts, as they have lost two of their last three games to NFC South opponents, and their once high-flying offense has stuttered throughout the past three games, including the unimpressive 10-7 victory over the Titans. With the Panthers continuing to look good and the Saints surging, one wonders if the Falcons might be fully grounded before the season is done. The Cardinals look like the team to beat in the NFC West, though Seattle has slithered back to 4-4, giving them an outside shot at actually winning the division. The Cowboys are in real danger of missing out on the playoffs, though the continued inconsistency of their compatriots in the NFC East might give them a shot if they can win their next two before Romo’s return. Meanwhile, the Wild Card race is wide open, with the exception of the NFC East, with the Falcons at 6-2, the Vikings at 5-2, the Rams at 4-3, the Saints and Seattle at 4-4 and a few others at 3-4.

At present, I still like the Patriots to meet the Packers in the Super Bowl, but I think we have to start taking the Broncos and Bengals seriously in the AFC and consider the viability of Carolina or Arizona coming out of the NFC.