The Games
The week got started on Thursday night with the classless
return of Rex Ryan and his Buffalo Bills to Met Life Stadium and a matchup with
the Jets team that rightfully sacked him after another awful season. Ryan once
seemed like a nice guy who had a big mouth but a kind heart; he increasingly
looks like a “character” or maybe even “caricature” of an NFL coach. Sure he
had the last laugh as the Bills held off a late Jets comeback to win 22-17, but
naming Enemkpali as the co-captain (the guy who broke Geno Smith’s jaw) showed
the kind of guy Ryan really is. On Sunday morning, two games with big
ramifications took place in Wisconsin and Tampa. The Detroit Lions finally
ended a 24-year losing streak at Green Bay, winning 18-16 after a last second
51-yard field goal by the Packers fell well short and the Cowboys lost for the
seventh game in a row, again ceding a fourth quarter lead to fall 10-6. Dez
Bryant appeared to be interfered with on the end zone interception that ended
it, but probably could have put up more of an effort to snatch a ball that
seemed very catchable. If the penalty had been called, the Cowboys would have
had the ball at the one yard line with plenty of time to run at least two or
three plays.
The Eagles blew a lead against the Dolphins after their
starting quarterback Sam Bradford went out with a shoulder injury and
concussion, losing 20-19. Good ole Mark Sanchez came in to “un”save the day (a
habit of his as the anti-Super Man), throwing an interception in the end zone
when they could have won with a field goal.
The Chicago Bears continued their recent renaissance, crushing the Rams
37-13 behind a big day from Jay Cutler (19 of 24 for 248 yards and 3
touchdowns). Todd Gurley was held to 45 yards on 12 rushes as Nick Foles had
another average day, only going 17/36 for 200 yards and a pick. Both teams
moved to 4-5 in what is increasingly shaping up as a packed Wild Card chase.
Meanwhile the Jags tagged the Ravens for another last second loss, this time on
a field goal with no time left to win it 22-20. Flacco had a big day with 316
yards on 34 of 45 passes, but had two picks to undermine his three touchdown
tosses.
The Panthers moved to 9-0 after struggling early against the
2-7 Titans, with Cam Newton putting in another efficient performance on the way
to the 27-10 win. And the New Orleans Saints continued to confound with their
play from one week to the next, getting absolutely demolished 47-14 by a
Redskins team that moved to 4-5. Kurt Cousins was the hero, throwing for four
touchdowns and 324 yards on only 20 completed passes (out of 25 throws), while
Drew Brees had an off day, tossing two interceptions and only completing 19 of
28 for 209 yards.
In the late games, the Giants hosted the Patriots in a
matchup that pitted one of the few coaches in the league with a winning record
against Bill Belichick; with Tom Coughlin 3-0, including the two Super Bowl
rings he stole from his old friend. This was the game of the season so far,
back and forth throughout before a 54-yard field goal with 1 second left gave
the Patriots the 27-26 win. The Giants (now 5-5) will look back at a few plays
that cost them the game, including a sack of Manning in the fourth quarter that
cost them a shot at three points, the overturned touchdown catch by Odell
Beckham, poor time management that gave Brady plenty of time for the comeback,
a missed interception on the final Patriots drive that would have sealed it and
failing to stop the Pats on a fourth and 10. It is the third game already this
season the Giants could, and probably should, have won. The Patriots, on the
other hand, will feel good at 9-0, having essentially already won the AFC East,
and having beaten one of their fiercest rivals in the league. But they lost key
receiver Edelman in the first half and will hope he doesn’t have an extended
stay on the sideline. In the other late games, the Chiefs made it two losses in
a row for the Broncos (29-13) as Peyton Manning played one of the worst games
of his career before being benched. The Vikings dented the Raider’s playoff
hopes with a 30-14 hiding that pushed them a game above the struggling Packers
in the NFC North.
The Sunday night game saw Seattle hosting Arizona in a game
that would go a long way to determining the winner of the NFC West. Arizona
jumped out to a 19-0 lead, but a Seattle touchdown before halftime gave them a
sliver of hope. After trading scores, Seattle’s defense stripped Carson Palmer on
two straight possessions, scoring touchdowns on each turnover to forge ahead
29-25. Palmer then led the Cardinals on an 83-yard touchdown drive to retake
the lead and then scored a long touchdown by Ellington on the next drive to
punctuate the win, though they needed to recover an onside kick to preserve the
final 39-32 win. Palmer threw for 363 yards and 3 touchdowns, though he also
threw an interception and lost two fumbles. Russell Wilson, on the other hand,
was 14-32 for 240 yards with a touchdown and a pick, earning a measly QBR of
13.8. At 4-5, Seattle is now in danger of missing out on the playoffs
altogether, while the Cardinals have essentially wrapped up the NFC West.
Monday night matched the 8-0 Bengals against the 3-5 Texans, and has often been
the case in recent years, the Texans upset their Northern neighbors. The
Bengals offense suddenly wilted under consistent pressure, only able to muster
two first field goals in a dull 10-6 loss, with Bengal’s killer T. J. Yates
coming on to lead the Texans on the game-winning fourth quarter drive.
Some thoughts on Week
10
Why Bad Teams Lose
(and occasionally win anyway)
The Jets head coach Todd Bowles might want to take some
lessons in math. After going for it on fourth down twice in the last six
minutes inside their opponents 25, Bowles lost the game 22-17. Last time I
checked, three + three = six, and thus a 23-22 win. On top of that was the
inability to pound it in from the two or, from a different vantage point, to
get the 13 yards they needed to take the lead after a blocked punt. Yet it
wasn’t just Bowles decision making that cost the Jets, as Fitzpatrick had a
below par game, the defense spotted the Bills a huge lead and a mix-up on
fourth down cost them the game late. Detroit did their best to blow their game
late against the Packers as well, after going up 8 points with a minute and a
half left, their kicker missed his SECOND extra point of the game. The Packers
then drove down the field and scored, only to just miss their own two-point
conversion. The resulting onside kick headed toward the man the Lions would
most trust to hold onto it (Calvin Johnson), though he somehow bumbled it and
gave it to the Packers. Their short drive got it into field goal range, but the
51 yarder was side footed and the Lions won at Green Bay for the first time in three
decades.
The loss of the day, though, goes to a coach who doesn’t
seem to garner enough scrutiny, even as he appears to lose more close games
than any other in the league. Jason Garrett has now overseen seven straight
losses for a Cowboys team that came into the season as prohibitive Super Bowl
favorites. Sure they lost their starting quarterback and best receiver, and
then one of their top two running backs, but they have been either ahead or
tied in the fourth quarter of six of those seven losses. The team has too many
turnovers, too many penalties, too many key mistakes, poor time management, the
inability to hold leads, a really average defense and a penchant for blowing
games late. Garrett’s record as the head coach now stands at 43-38 and he has
played a mere two playoff games, winning won (they probably should have lost)
and losing one (they probably should have won). But let’s look more closely at
those seasons. In his first three, the Cowboys finished 8-8 and one game out of
the playoffs. In each of those seasons, they played an NFC East rival with the
chance to seal the division and a playoff birth in the final game. And they
lost each of those games. Last year, he did lead them to a division title and a
playoff birth, but they were lucky to beat the Lions after a bad call and
really should have won the game against the Packers (even as he had no control
over “the catch that wasn’t.”). Garrett cannot be fired after all the injury
woes the Cowboys have suffered, but I think there is a strong argument that
this should be his final season in charge of the underperforming Dallas
Cowboys. Given Jerry Jones’ decision making since his ex-friend Jimmy Johnson
left, one assumes he will sign him to a lifetime contract after they just miss
out on the playoffs by losing the final game of the season.
Is Peyton Manning
Done?
Peyton Manning had one of his worst games as a professional
quarterback on Sunday, going 5 for 20 for 35 yards and 4 (no, that is not a typo)
interceptions. He was also sacked twice. It was such a bad performance Manning
earned a quarterback rating (not QBR) of 0.0. It has of course emerged today
that he has a plantar fascia issue that affected his performance, but serious
questions must still be asked. Overall this season, he has 9 touchdown passes
versus 17 interceptions, has a completion percentage under 60 (59.9), is only
averaging 6.77 yards per attempt and has a QBR (45.0) that ranks 29th. The truth is, besides the impressive game against the
Packers, Manning has been among the most mediocre (or bad, if you like)
quarterbacks in the league since the middle of last season. His body is falling
apart on him, his throws (which were never tight spirals) are like flailing
ducks half the time and he is getting close to doubling his touchdown total
with interceptions.
It used to be that teams could win championships with a
dominant defense and a passable offense, but those days appear to be long gone.
Seattle is the closest we’ve seen, but their dominance over the past few years
has owed a lot to one of the better statistical quarterbacks in the league and
a dominant rusher in Marshall Lynch. Since that offense’s performance has
declined this year, so have their fortunes. The Broncos might have flattered to
deceive with their early start, but this does not look like a team that can win
a playoff game, much less go to and win the Super Bowl.
Maybe a few week’s rest will allow Manning to come back
stronger, but his performance in this game and the late interception that cost
them the comeback against the Colts, together with his overall performance this
season, fails to give one much confidence that he is doing much else this year
besides breaking some more records and, in a small way, tarnishing the tail end
of a spectacular career. The solitary Super Bowl victory is the presumptive
reason he returned, but I believe that ship sailed two seasons ago in a Super
Bowl that was over before it had really begun. On a more positive note, many
great quarterbacks from Dan Marino to Dan Fouts to Richard Todd (just kidding)
would have gladly taken that one ring and called it a career.
Are these Panthers for
Real?
The Panthers now stand at 9-0 and in firm control of the NFC
South. If they keep playing like this, they should also take home field
advantage into the playoffs. Last year, their 7-8-1 record led many to question
whether division winners should even get an automatic spot in the playoffs,
before they beat the Cardinals in the Wild Card game 27-16 and gave the
Seahawks a scare before ending up on the wrong side of a 31-17 scoreline. And lest
us forget, this is the same team that went 12-4 two years ago before losing to
the Niners 23-10 in the divisional round. So, are the Panthers now a serious
Super Bowl contender? They have had some quality wins, including a 27-23 road
win over the Seahawks, a 27-16 victory over the Eagles, a 29-26 win over the
Colts and a 37-29 victory over the Packers. But those wins are looking a little
less impressive as time goes on and we see flaws in each of those other teams. Their
other opponents have been more suspect, but nine wins in a row is nine wins in
a row. Looking forward, they face the Redskins (H), Cowboys (A), Saints (A),
Falcons (H), Giants (A), Falcons again (A) and Bucs (H). They could easily fall
back into the pack if they let up at all, but those are all winnable games.
In total defense, the Panthers rank a middle-of-the-road 11th,
the same position they earn in points allowed per game (20.4). They are 12th
in total passing yards allowed and 13th against the run.
Offensively, they rank 16th in total yards; 27th in
passing yards per game (216.6) but tied for first with Buffalo in rushing
(142.3 yards per game). Yet even with those yardage numbers, they are fourth in
points scored per game (28.5), behind only the Patriots, Arizona and
Cincinnati. And that is the number that matters most. One reason they have
scored so many points on a relatively average offense is their plus six
turnover margin, good for third in the league behind only the Giants and
Patriots. The incredible statistic here is they are tied for 17th in
giveaways, with 12, but have forced the fourth most takeaways including a
league-leading 13 interceptions (tied with two others).
Cam Newton might be one of the biggest reasons for the
impressive first half of the season, though one might be surprised to learn
that he is having his worst statistical season by just about any measure. His
QBR (52.9) is the lowest in his five-year career, his completion percentage is
down (53.7 versus 58.8 overall), his yards per carry (4.7) is below his career
average of 5.4, and his yards per attempt (7.4), though better than the
previous two season, is below his first two years. His TD/INT (14/9) is more or
less on par with his career (91-63), though he has yet to lose a fumble this
season. The difference then is his leadership skills and ability to play better
when the game is on the line. Newton’s number do not put him among the elite
quarterbacks in the league, at least this season, but there is still a
perception among most football experts that he is now among the best in the
league and has the tools to raise his game to the next level.
On the evidence so far, one would say the Panthers are for
real, but might not be quite ready for the big time unless the defense improves
and Newton plays marginally better going forward. On the other hand, if they
keep getting key turnovers, continue to score at their current rate and play
defense a little better, they could certainly go all the way.
Playoff Picture
It appears the playoff picture got a little murkier this
week. For one, the Packers lost for the third game in a row and seem to be an
offense without an identity. That appears to put the Carolina Panthers at the
head of the pack out of the NFC, though I still wonder about their ability to
get all the way to the Super Bowl, as mentioned above. In the AFC, the Broncos
were so profligate offensively that the unthinkable happened – they benched
Peyton Manning (after he completed one more pass (5) than interceptions (4) in
his first 20 throws of the game). The Bengals finally lost. And the team that
has represented the NFC in the past two Super Bowls is now 4-5; Seattle in case
you’ve been living in a cave without Internet or cable reception.
The Patriots are still the cream of the AFC and,
realistically, of the NFL, and the competition around them seems to be
crumbling. Is a second Super Bowl appearance in a row in the offing? The
Steelers could still have something to say about it, though I am doubtful Big
Ben can carry them far enough on his rather sizable shoulders. The Bengals are
still 8-1 after a one-off loss on Monday night, but have never proven
themselves in the playoffs. And Denver is not moribund quite yet. One other
team to watch might be an odd choice, but the Colts have shown some of their
old magic on occasion this season, and are really shooting to finally get past
the Patriots and to the big game.
In the NFC, the Panthers are the only remaining undefeated
team and, barring a late season collapse, could be playing all their playoff
games at home. The Vikings are in the ascendancy as well, and now have a one
game lead over the Packers after winning their fifth in a row. With their
running game and defense, decent play from Bridgewater should keep them in the
conversation for a potential Super Bowl appearance. Meanwhile, the up and down
Giants have arguably the best quarterback in the NFC at present and with all of
their offensive weapons could be a team to watch, assuming they even make the
playoffs. And don’t count out those Cardinals, who have the most explosive
offense in the NFC, if not the league.
At present, I still like the Patriots to come out of the AFC
and will switch from the Packers to the Cardinals for the moment. There is
still a lot of football to go this season, though, and things can change
quickly.
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