Monday, April 08, 2013

Arsenal Win 2-1

Arsenal won a huge road game over West Brom 2-1 on Saturday putting themselves in the driver's seat to grasp a top four finish from a disappointing season. Currently sitting in fifth with a game in hand, they can now snatch fourth or even third, sending hated rivals Tottenham or Chelsea to the Europa League next year. After cruising through the first 70 minutes, on two goals from resurgent Tomas Rosicky (in the 20th and 50th minutes), Per Mertesacker showed that his pace and positioning still let him down on occasion taking down Shane Long in the box for a clear penalty and red card. Morrison converted the penalty and the Gunners had to see out the last 26 minutes with 10 men. Though they wilted at times and seemed to give the ball away every time they had it, they held firm and picked up the vital three points. Rather than analyze the game in depth, I want to consider the run-in here ...

1. After a winnable game at home against Norwich (a game we must win), we next host Everton and then take on Fulham on the road. The most challenging of the three is clearly Everton and the Gunners must shore up their defense and finish their chances if they are to pull the maximum nine points and forge into third place (Chelsea and Tottenham are not playing until after the Everton matchup). Then we host Man United, before finishing with QPR on the road (a team that appears headed for sure relegation after giving up a last second free kick against Wigan to drop two points at home), Wigan at home and then Newcastle at St. James. It is the easiest finish of the other top four contenders and Arsenal should be able to secure the coveted UCL spot once again if they keep playing as they have since the Bayern second leg. 

2. Wenger actually has some selection headaches for the first time in awhile. Vermaelen will be back in the side for Norwich, as Mertesacker serves his one game suspension, but will have to prove himself if he is not to be relegated to the bench yet again. Koscielny and Mert have been playing well together, only conceding two goals in the past four games and Vermaelen has clearly been a liability for much of the season. 

In midfield, Wilshere is back in training but there is a real question of whether he should start. We just seem to be a better team without him lately, as his rambling runs forward too often leave us exposed behind (particularly if he is playing alongside Cazorla) and undermine the cohesiveness and flow of the attack. Wilshere is a star in the making, but we need a quality defensive mid behind him if we are to be top contenders in the future. Ramsey has also upped his game in recent weeks and though he missed a golden opportunity to put it in a gaping goal, appears to warrant consideration for retaining his starting role. On top of this is Rosicky, who is starting to regain the form that injuries have too often blighted (whether for the Czech Republic or Arsenal). His vision, runs and ability to hold onto the ball all make him indispensable at the moment. And if he can actually score some goals, as we all thought he could, that only adds to his claim to a starting role at present.

In the forward line, Walcott might also be ready to start again and here is potentially the biggest risk. Walcott has had a real dip in form since signing his new contract in January and Gervinho is currently playing the best football of his Arsenal career. It is hard not to continue starting him on the wing, particularly as this production could really turn his career in England around. That leaves both Ox and Walcott in the cold, but maybe Walcott should be given another chance to start in the middle against Norwich (a team without as much speed in the back). Giroud has shown glimmers of the striker that led France in goals last year, though more often with clever passes (he should have had an assist if Ramsey could finish), but he is not holding the ball up as well as I would like and sometimes undermines our attacks by failing to get into the box fast enough or taking heavy first touches. Giroud could still come good in the closing matches, but it is clear that a first rate striker is necessary if we are to challenge for silverware and titles next year. Gervinho could, of course, also start on the left as he has done in the past, but that would mean a sacrifice elsewhere. 

3. Podolski: I believe Arsenal have been better offensively with Pod in the starting  lineup, though it is hard to argue that we have not been a better team with him on the bench. What I would hate to see, though, is him be sacrificed this summer as there are potential suitors across Europe. Podolski's production this year has been great and while he does sometimes disappear from games, his ability to finish and put in quality crosses makes him a key point of attack. Given Giroud's problems scoring, I do wonder why Podolski has only had one game as our central striker and wonder if we might try him in that role in the run-in. In any case, he is a talent we must keep, as he seems to love Arsenal and has the talent to be a key player moving forward.

4. While recent form has been heartening and Arsenal victories are always a welcome start to a weekend, I do think we must recognize that the rumoured overhaul of the team still needs to take place this summer. Yes we have plenty of young talent, backed by more seasoned players like Mertesacker, Podolski, Arteta and Sagna (who may go), we still have needs at a number of positions. Looking again at those needs after the good run of games, I would argue at least three players should be brought in, if not more:

Defense: we are hopefully getting rid of the deadwood in the back this summer including Djourou and Squillaci, which really means we need another centre half. If Vermaelen continues to play as he has been I wonder if we should not cash in on Barcelona's interest and find more quality in the position. Regardless, we still need a centre half and should pay the money for someone who can shore up the defense (I like Ashely Williams from Swansea or this kid from France they've been talking about). We are set at left back with Monreal and Gibbs and might be at right back if Sagna decides to stay (he seems to be getting back in form in recent games, though I still think his positioning is sometimes terrible). Given Sagna's two broken legs, it might be prudent to let PSG have him and pick up someone for Jenkinson to battle for the starting job (Luke Shaw is a great option, though I'm not sure what his future holds). Finally, we need a more seasoned goalie to work with Szczesny going forward and to challenge him for the top spot (assuming we keep him). Fabianski has been good the past few games, but never looks completely convincing on crosses and free kicks, which is too important to the English game. 

Midfield: this is our strongest area and with Ramsey improving and Wilshere coming back, together with Cazorla and Artetea (and Coquelin for a more defensive gameplan), the key need here is a defensive midfielder. Rumours have circulated that Alex Song could be brought back, but do we really want a guy that left under a cloud and hasn't played much in Spain this year? Maybe, but I think there are a number of exciting options out there and we are supposedly considering a number of players including Capoue. A defensive midfielder will allow us to rotate the squad more next year and push Arteta further forward when he plays, thus capitalizing on his talents more. 

Forwards: the key need here is clearly a world class striker, though if Podolski is not going to be used in this position, we really need two strikers in addition to Giroud. My top pick would be Jovetic from Fiorentina, but I would be happy with some of the other names being parried around (though I do think Sanchez would be a mistake, as his production is way down this year). We need someone who can change games and not a project for the future so I hope Wenger finally opens the piggy bank and spends big on this, our biggest need. If we had RVP this year, I think we would have won the Capital One Cup and maybe been challenging for the title. It's not that Giroud has been terrible, he just doesn't score when we need it enough (or really ever). Beyond that, there is no clear need up front, as we have Podolski, Gervinho (if we keep him, which is still iffy) and Cazorla (though I think he is better through the middle in an advanced role) and Walcott, Ox and/or Gervinho on the right. We also have Ryo Miyachi if he ever gets over his injury problems and strengthens and some other young prospects. 

So Arsenal has their destiny in their own hands. One hopes they seize the moment and create some momentum heading into next year. And if we can leave Tottenham heartbroken yet again (and without Bale in all probability), well that's a savory bonus!

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