Monday, November 26, 2012

The EPL This Week

Man United came from behind to win again (against the still winless QPR), Chelsea and Man City played a torpid 0-0 draw, Tottenham won, Arsenal drew and West Brom continued their impressive start to the new season. The big news this week was the firing of a Champions League winner, Roberto Di Matteo and the hiring of hated ex-Liverpool chief Rafael Benitez by the gun slinging Russian oligarch Abramovich. Why he wasn't given more time after winning the FA Cup and Champions League is hard to understand except that Abramovich is the George Steinbrenner of world football. It is also becoming clear that Chelsea will be dumping more of its senior players in short order, as Cole and Lampard are slated to go. While this will be good news to the up and comers at the club, serious questions are emerging of whether the youngsters have the experience to lead the team to trophies. Chelsea just seems to lack the leadership that shone so bright last year and with the listless Torres continuing to struggle, a new striker is clearly needed. But there is also unrest around the drop in form of the 21-year old Hazard, who took the season by storm only to come up short of form and effort since. Oscar clearly has talent as well, but it seems that teams can bully around the squad at the moment, a real change from the Blues effective negative tactics that saw them come good last May. 

The inconsistency of most of the clubs around them is the only reason Arsenal are still in the race for the top four. It has been a tough season so far and unless change is coming soon, this year is looking to be even worse than the last. We lack punch, talent in the attack and off the bench and, it seems, desire at times. Injuries have not helped, but fears that letting Song and RVP go and not getting solid backups at defensive mid and striker would hurt us. Looking at the squad from top to bottom, we have a real problem with attacking threats off the bench. The defense has solidified a little but Arteta is having to play too deep to be effective moving forward, Cazorla has seen a slight drop in form and our wing play has too often been anemic. At right back, Sagna and Jenkinson both look solid, but there are fears Sagna might follow other stars out the door. The shift of Mertesacker, Kos and Vermaelen seems pretty strong and Gibbs is improving on the left, though we could use a backup. 

Moving to the middle of the pitch, the problems start to amplify. At times, it appears we need a more defensive midfielder so we can get Arteta further up the pitch, but without Song, who is there? Maybe Diaby could play that role, but this would require him actually staying on the pitch for more than a few matches at a time. Coquelin has real talent, but needs time to develop it (as does . Wilshire could play deeper as well, but then we lose some of his punch. And Ramsey is just not good enough to me.  It seems clear we need a defensive midfielder and maybe another creative force that can switch in when Cazorla or Wilshire needs a rest. I would also like to see the impressive Eisfeld given a run out or two.

Moving to our forwards, we have some serious problems. I think Giroud is coming good and can be counted on, but who can back him up and what if we want to play a 4-4-2 against some opponents? Problems clearly emerge. Gervinho started the campaign well before an injury sidelined him, but he is heading off to the African Cup of Nations soon and didn't return the same player from that tough schedule last year. He is inconsistent and I'm not sure if he will ever be the force we hoped for. Walcott has obviously played well this year, but will he stay? And if he does, will he be willing to continue out on the wing, where I think he is more effective? Podolski could play up front, but Wenger has kept him on the left wing for most of the season. After a poor stretch, he has started to score again, but does seem to disappear for long stretches. And the Ox has clearly seen a drop in form this season. He needs to become more disciplined and learn that you don't always need to dribble past defenders -- use your speed, pass when necessary and get in some decent crosses. When Ramsey plays on the wing, we are just not good enough and though Arshavin looks okay at times, he doesn't play enough to have any real impact. Beyond this we have Chamakh, who clearly has no future at the club, as he never plays. Rumors at the moment suggest Huntelar might be bought this winter and that would be good news. If we are to sell Walcott, we clearly need a ready replacement -- and Zaha would be great (though there is serious competition for his signature).

What troubles me the most is a sense that Wenger is losing it a little the past year. First we had Ox-gate, when Wenger took Chamberlain out against Man United last year for Arshavin -- which might have contributed to RvP leaving. Then the bizarre decision to take out Giroud and put in Coquelin at the end of a 0-0 game against Villa. He is losing his best players, has many disgruntled others that may follow (Sagna is complaining about selling Song, Pod and Walcott want to play up front, Coquelin wants more time, etc.) and makes some strange tactical decisions, particularly against lesser clubs. Why wasn't Wilshire brought on for 20 or 30 minutes against Villa to spark the offense? Why didn't the Gunners wake up offensively until the last few minutes of the contest, whereas if they played that way the entire game they would have probably won handily? Why can't he get the squad to show up against lesser competition? And where is the real commitment to silverware? Arsenal apparently has money to spend at the moment and one hopes Wenger finally makes some worthwhile purchases, but if he continues with his stingy ways I really do think it's time to wrap up his career with the Gunners. 

Whether that will happen even if we finish in sixth or seventh remains to be seen, but at the moment that's about how good we look. Just as a reminder, we have drawn against Stoke, Sunderland, Fulham and now Aston Villa. We have lost to Man United (of course), Chelsea (in a game we easily could have won) and Norwich (who have improved). Our wins came against Liverpool, Southhampton, QPR, a 10-men Tottenham and West Ham. And we have the second fewest points at this time in the season in our EPL history. There will certainly be opportunities for points coming up, but can we actually win more than two games in a row? We have only done it twice all season, a three-game run early and the latest short two game streak. Next up is Everton and, I believe, a must-win game if we are to push our way back into the top four. Let's hope the team is up for the test. 

As to the title chase, it appears to be a two-horse race for the second year running, with City looking a little stronger than United to me at the moment. The Red Devils are coming back strongly in game after game, but I feel their luck will run out if they keep this up, particularly on the road. City hasn't lost all season, except for their terrible form in the Champions League, and seem to be squaring up the defensive difficulties that were plaguing them early. They too have had a number of come-from-behind victories this year (after the stunning way they won the title last year) and certainly have the talent to push past United. The upcoming game between the two will probably play a huge role in the buildup to the busy holiday schedule and City have the advantage of not having to worry about Champions League football in the business end of the season. Chelsea just doesn't seem strong enough to me at present to challenge, after an impressive start, and appear about to let one of their best defenders leave in January. Other than that, unless a team goes on a huge winning streak, I believe West Brom, Arsenal, Chelsea, Tottenham and Everton will compete for those final two spots -- and I believe West Brom and Everton will start and continue to fade a bit, particularly if Fellani quits David Moyes' side for $greener$ pastures. Just hoping Arsenal wake up and start making their claim for one of those spots. We shall know more Wednesday ...

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