Spain vs. Italy (The Euro Final)

Tomorrow Euro 2012 will end and either Spain will have set a mark for the ages or Italy will have completed an improbable run to the title. It has been a mixed Euro 2012, with some exemplary play and lackluster efforts by some of the continents biggest teams. The Dutch were terrible, Germany could not complete their role in the predicted final and England played better than expected but went out on penalties once again. Ireland was awful, Russia somehow failed to make the knock-out stage and Portugal's momentum seemed to evaporate as Ronaldo decided (or was told) to take the fifth and final penalty. So we have one of  the co-favorites in the final and another that many expected little from. And in a bizarre twist of fate, Spain is being called boring and Italy has moved from its defense first approach to play some wonderfully entertaining football, led by the reemergence of Pirlo on the world stage. So who will win?

As a former resident of Spain, I would love them to win the triplet and assert themselves as the best national team in history. Their style of play, flair and cadre of world class talent certainly deserves to stand alone at the top of the sport. But it is fair to say that this tournament has not seen the best of the Iberians. The odd 4-6-0 formation they have employed in most of their games has led to a certain staleness and inability to put in as many goals as many would like to see, except against the inept Irish. They are missing their World Cup and World Class Barca striker David Villa and don't seem to trust Torres, who has been in slightly better form of late but still seems anemic at times. They have often relied on their best-in-the-world keeper to make key saves as their defense rattles but doesn't break (clearly missing the aging star Puyols). And they have lacked the creative flair that had made them the envy, and scourge, of the rest of the world for eight years now. 

Italy, on the other hand, is in the midst of a Renaissance. They came into the tournament again suffering through the early stages of another match-fixing, betting scandal. They lost to the lowly Americans this Spring, after a terrible World Cup. They clearly have some young talent but seemed to be relying on old fading stars. And yet they have improved with each game and could have easily beat Germany 4-1 and England 2 or 3 nil, but for the failure of someone not named Mario to score. The team is as tight defensively as ever but have developed a nice possession style centered around Pirlo, who may very well be the player of the tournament. They come into the final on a high and know that, baring 2008, they have a good record against the Spaniards. So who will win?

I think Spain needs to abandon the 4-6-0 in this game and put either Torres, Negredo or Llorante up top (the last being all but impossible to imagine). Negredo was not great against Portugal and I wonder if they will give Torres the nod to find the glory yet again eight years after starting this incredible run of form. The problem with the 4-6, besides lacking a seasoned finisher (though many pretenders to the throne including Iniesta (who often scores on the big stage) and Fabergas), is that Italy will clog the middle and make it difficult for Spain to attack there with their pinpoint passing; as they like to do. But if Torres shows a little of the old magic, as he did for Chelsea a few times toward the end of the season, he can go on his classic runs to break the defense or they can try to attack from the wings. I suppose I wouldn't be surprised to see the less exciting formation again, but I hope not. As for the Italians, they will probably have a few chances and it is a question of putting one or two in the back of the net if this isn't to be another 1-0 Spain victory or nervy shootout for the Euros. Spain will clearly need to keep Pirlo in check and keep Balotelli continuously marked. I think Italy has a real chance but will go with my heart and a 1-0 or 2-1 victory for Spain. If it does go to a shootout we will see two of the best goalkeepers in the world go at it, with plenty of great penalty takers 12 yards away. If we end up there, I take Spain 4-3. 

In any case, it will be a stirring conclusion to the tournament and one hopes the battle creates compelling moments to remember rather than a Spain possession-Italy defense snorer. We shall see!