Romney Forges Ahead

Romney had a big night on Super Tuesday, shoring up his delegate lead even as he suffered further defeats to chief rival Rick Santorum and barely squeaked out victory in Ohio, where they outspent the former Pennsylvania Senator 4 to 1 (New York Times). While his nomination moves closer to inevitability, he now leads with 415 delegates to 176 for Santorum, 105 for Gingrich and 47 for Ron Paul, serious questions remain about his ability to connect with white, working class Republicans and to close the nomination process and move on to the battle to unseat Obama. More troubling is further evidence that money now speaks volumes in the electoral process, with Romney's lack of popularity among the right wing of the party tempered by his ability to outspend his more conservative opponents. In the states he has won, heavy spending near the end turned the tide -- particularly in Michigan and Ohio. Money has spoken volumes in politics for at least three decades, since the explosion of PACs and lobbyists, but money is now the best predictor of success at the state or national level (with only incumbency a better predictor in most cases). This might swing in Obama's favor in the general election, but the new Citizens decision will certainly have corporations lining up to throw their weight behind anyone who runs against Obama. The real question is whether Romney can galvanize his base to come out in the numbers necessary to win, whether he can convince independent voters that he is in any way authentic and whether he can stop the media barrage of questions about his tendency to stretch the truth and take positions based solely on the audience to whom he is speaking. At the most basic level, a serious question emerges of whether Romney can win on the issues that Republicans seem to care about these days -- militarism (Obama has disappointed progressives by largely continuing the Bush doctrine), abortion/gay rights and the economy. Yes he has the business chops, but as a corporate raider who might remind too many of the Wall Street barons who put us in this mess to begin with. On taxes he will certainly gain some ground, but his plan largely follows the failed trickle down policies of Reagan-Bush. And on the question of likability, it is hard to believe that an East Coast aristocrat can really convince the American public that he is one of them the way Bush did. I feel Santorum would be easier to beat but really wonder if a smug, uber-capitalist is really what the country is looking for right now. We shall have to wait and see ...