Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Population Trends Favor GOP

The U.S. Census Bureau released findings today that show an expected shift away from Democratic strongholds in the Northeast and Midwest to warmer states including Florida, Texas and Arizona. The big winner is GOP stronghold Texas, which will gain 4 seats. Florida will add two and South Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Utah and Nevada will each gain one. The losers include New Jersey (1), New York (2), Ohio (2) and Illinois, Mass., Michigan, Missouri and Iowa (1 each). Califronia broke even for the first time since 1920. The shift is amplified by the fact GOP governors reside over GOP state legislatures in six of the eight states that will draw new district lines for the 2012 election. So after a short-lived hope that we might be experiencing a political realignment away from the 30 years of conservative rule, it appears likely that they will solidify their hold on the House in the next election. As to the 2012 presidential campaign, the electoral college changes do not appear to be sufficient to affect Obama's chances of reelection, though things will most certainly change in the next two years.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703581204576033513727657644.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEADNewsCollection

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