An American Disgrace: Trump on the Verge

Most of the Trump Administration’s key positions have been filled and it is a pretty scary group in composite. I will highlight the key figures and a little on their relevant background tomorrow, but today I wanted to consider the Trump transition over the past few weeks beyond the figures that will lead us into 2017 and beyond.

A lot more has happened over the holiday season regarding Trump and his future plans and much of it appears to be bad news for the average American … though possibly better for Russia. There is too much to cover in one post, but I thought I would summarize some of the lowlights over the festive period, beyond the growing collection of corporate lackeys, climate change deniers, racists, homophobes and crackpot conspiracy theorists that will now populate the corridors of power in DC come January 20. Yes, that’s right, a mere 14 days until the most arrogant, megalomaniacal and ill-prepared President in history takes office.

Fake vs. Real Policy

Like the fake news that is so beloved by Trump and his supporters, it appears fake policy has entered the fray even before Trump officially enters the office of president. A few weeks ago, Trump was first lauded and then criticized in certain circles after “saving” 800 jobs with Carrier. The facts surrounding the case are open to interpretation and employees themselves made it clear they were less than impressed. He has also taken credit for other companies keeping jobs in the U.S., including hyping Ford’s decision to add 700 jobs (The Economist) even as those jobs and the ones at Carrier came with huge tax reduction windfalls for the company that essentially hurt average Americans more than they help the few workers who have kept their jobs, at least for the short term. Paul Krugman provides an interesting analysis of what he calls “fake policy” and its relationship to the more substantive and real policy prescriptions we need to turn around the slumbering economy for most American workers (NYT). As Krugman points out, the push for “fake policy” is the natural corollary for the fake populism that ultimately vaulted him to the presidency, along with more than a little help from his friends in Russia and a certain FBI official.

Speaking of Russia

Another story that has been getting big coverage for well over a month is the intervention of Russia in our election and the assistance they gave to Trump, which almost certainly helped to get him over the hump. Trump, of course, refuses to accept the conclusions of the FBI and CIA (NYT), instead claiming that it is a “witch hunt” (). In fact, the most recently released information suggests Putin himself ordered the hacking and fake news spreading that supported Trump’s surprise victory (WP). I assume this is just the start of a trend that will continue with Trump as president, ignoring or refuting any story that is inconvenient to his standing or the policies he pursues. Sure the experts have probably studied the issue under examination a lot more than me, but as a megalomaniac who doesn’t really care much about facts, my opinion is not only AS valid as theirs, but MORE valid. That appears to be his stance on everything from climate change and the war on terror to intelligence and the election results themselves.   

Conflicts of Interest No Longer an Issue

That appears to be the position of Trump, who cancelled a news conference a few weeks ago where he was going to explain how he would tackle the very real, and troubling conflicts of interest that could beset his administration right from the onset. The idea of a “blind trust” run by his children appears to have been abandoned, even as the possibility of that actually being a blind trust was as suspect as his claims about Russian hacking, climate change or most of his policy prescriptions. At one point he actually had the audacity to say he could run his business and the country at the same time, but has been smart enough not to repeat those troubling claims. But with Ivanka and the rest of the family setting up shop in DC, and sitting in on meetings with top executives from technology companies and foreign leaders, it appears the Trump clan assumes that either the media will tire of the story or that their supporters are so deafened by the echo chamber of false news that they won’t bother to care as he makes business decisions in his own interest that could damage the country and its rather larger interests.

Fact Checking Trump

Following on a theme, Trump continues to have a precarious relationship with the truth in the information he spreads to his twitter followers (though we can’t speak to his relationship with the media, since he has been ignoring them for months). The Washington Post has started a nifty series to fact check Trump’s twitter account on a weekly basis (WP). Just this week, they report the following inaccuracies and downright lies: a) Reported that Chicago murder rate in 2016 was record-setting. It was high, but not record level high, a tendency we have seen rather frequently from our future Commander and Thief, b) Trump claimed Chevy was sending their Cruze line from Mexico to sell in the U.S. That is false on two levels – first, the cars sold in the U.S. are made right here in Ohio and the majority of those made in Mexico are actually sold abroad. c) Trump tweeted “People must remember that Obamacare just doesn’t work, and it is not affordable – 116% increases (Arizone). Bill Clinton called it ‘crazy.’” There are a lot of errors in this statement, including the 116% increase. It was actually 25 there and some states have seen decreases in premiums. Those who premiums increased, like mine, are not eligible for subsidies. And Clinton’s quote? It was only for the tax subsidies, not the entire plan. d) As mentioned above, Trump took credit for Ford scraping a Mexican plan due to “Trump Policies,” even as he is not even President and thus does not yet have “policies.” But the truth is even further afield, as Ford abandoned that plan because they do not see the future in small cars but in electric vehicles, though they did give some credit to their outlook under a Trump presidency. e) Going back to Russia for a second, Trump sent two tweets that are especially suspect, one falsely claiming the intelligence briefing had been moved to Friday (and that it was quite suspicious) and the other backing up the lies from Wikileaks founder Julian Assange about Russian help with his hacking of the DNC.

Tidbits

Trump has been unpleasant to downright vociferous in taking on enemies real and perceived. But others are already suffering under his rather thin-skinned approach to opposition. The latest appear to have done nothing other then the work they were assigned to during their stay as foreign ambassadors. The general policy is to give these officials some time to clear out their desks and get family business in order, but Trump has ordered all of them to vacate their posts and return home by the day of his inauguration (WP). Classy guy!

Arsenal Come Back from 3-0 Down for First Time in History … but is their title challenge gone?

Arsenal had never salvaged a point from 3-0 down in their storied history, a dire 0-0-27 in those situations. That is until today at Bournemouth, where they came roaring back with 3 goals in the final 25 minutes of the game. The turnaround started with a wonderfully flicked header from Giroud to a charging Sanchez (70’). Giroud then served up a second, hitting Perez on the left side of the box, with the sub powering the ball from an acute angle across goal (75’). Giroud then completed the comeback with an excellent header of his own in extra time (92’).

It was a spirited showing from a side that has had plenty of them this season, but they were undone in the end by another evening of poor defending, even as Mustafi maintained his undefeated record back in the starting 11. While it will be a nice building block for the second half of the season, it is hard to ignore the fact Arsenal will be at least 8, and as many as 11, points behind a hot Chelsea with 18 games left on the league schedule. Three thoughts on the game and a fourth on the rest of the action over the past few days:

1. Giroud Brings Gunners Back: Giroud just keeps scoring, setting up the first two and then scoring the equalizer. He was largely ineffective, as was the entire team, for the first 70 minutes, but the whole team came alive down the stretch and might well have won it with just a few more ticks on the clock. In fact, for the second time in the past few games, the Gunners failed to get the ball in the box with time running out, the sort of error that costs points and titles.

Giroud has now scored 16 in his last 18 for club and country, an impressive run for any striker not named Messi or Ronaldo. The question, as I recently posed, is whether the team are better with him in it from the start. Just looking at his last three games, he has scored three and added two assists, helping the Gunners to 7 points they might otherwise be without – scoring the winner against a resolute West Brom, the opener in the 2-0 win over Crystal Palace on Sunday and the equalizer today.

I think the answer, though becoming more difficult, is no, as the side seem to be too ponderous offensively and prone to push forward as a unit, leaving the backdoor gaping for counters. In three of their past five fixtures, they have shipped at least two goals (7 in total, even with two clean sheets) and seem to have continued their tendency to fall asleep defensively, like sides of past years. Giroud only started one of those games, but was a sub for 20 minutes in both of the 2-1 losses that could well have derailed Arsenal’s season. Before that, he failed to score in two wins, but helped Arsenal to a 2-2 draw with PSG and a 1-1 draw with United. In the end, he is useful and prolific as an impact sub and starter in some games but Arsenal appear to be more dynamic and balanced with Sanchez through the middle.

2. Defense Collapses Again After Two Clean Sheets: West Brom are playing good football this season, and scoring at a more frequent clip than one would expect of a Tony Pulis’ side, but a 1-0 clean sheet against them and a 2-0 win over struggling Crystal Palace are not enough to end speculation that Arsenal’s defense is set to cost them the title again. And today those concerns came to fruition, as the Gunners shipped three goals before storming back. But who was guilty?

Top of the list for me was Bellerin, who has seen a drop-off in form without many taking notice. His crosses have been less accurate, his runs forward less successful and his speed unable to make-up for pushing forward too often. He was arguably complicit on all three of Bournemouth’s goals, beaten twice for the first, too far forward for the second and again beaten for the third. Xhaka too must be blamed for a completely unnecessary foul in the box that led to the second, as the Cherries player was angling to get around him but seemed to be moving away from goal, a move that started as Ramsey failed to track back. A fourth player worth mentioning is Cech, who made some fine saves but might have done better on the first, getting nutmegged when he could have come out faster.

In total, Arsenal have but two clean sheets in their past 15 games, with those coming in the two games that preceded this one. Coquelin has been impressive again this season, but really a tier below his old dominant self. Xhaka has a nice range of passing and intercepts his fair share of balls, but has a tendency for boneheaded fouls that either get him yellow and red cards or the penalty today that put Arsenal down two after twenty minutes. Ramsey, once the engine that made those around him look soporific, has lost some of that industry, along with his finishing touch. And even as Cazorla is not thought of as a defensive mastermind, his ability to lead attacks out of the back is supported by much better defending than in the past, particularly his ability to sniff out a pass and intercept it. Even the back line that has been so effective for the Gunners earlier in the season, Koscielny and Mustafi, looked out of sorts today, though one must make allowances for the latter just coming back off of injury reserve.

Arsenal might well be out of the title race, but if they want to secure Top 4 status, as is their perennial “trophy” under Wenger, they will need to shore up the defense in the second half of the season.

3. Time to Call Time on Wenger? Given that this may well end up as their only goal as the second half unfolds, it is time to again ask the question that seems to come up every season over at least the past six – is it time for Wenger to step down and let someone else try to take this team further than the Top 4 and a Round of 16 exit from the Champions League. The move, of course, comes with risks, as we have seen with Liverpool for the past 20 years and United for the past three plus seasons. On the other hand, there are few Gooners that would not take a year out of the UCL for a sustained title charge or another trip to the semis of that venerable tournament.

Chelsea and Liverpool could certainly both go through cold spells that allow Arsenal to sneak back into the title challenge, but for now, it appears their race is run. Given the relative parity of the Top 6 and Chelsea standing on the cusp of breaking Arsenal’s record for consecutive wins, set back in 2001-2, the Gunners can be forgiven for not winning the title. And yet this is arguably the third time in the past four years when they had a reasonable chance to challenge through to the final day of the season. Last season was their best chance since at least 2008 and they collapsed in epic fashion right after a stunning come-from-behind win over the eventual Champions.

This season started rather brightly, with the Gunners finding ways to pull out wins or draws, more defensively stout and scoring freely in many games. But after winning their group with some luck in the Champions League they appear to have taken several steps backwards. And since this appears to be an annual occurrence, starting with some dropped points in November – which continued this year – followed by a few more around Christmas, and then setbacks at some point between February and April. Arsenal have generally finished every season strong over the past decade, but only after they fell out of real contention for the title.

And all this leads to the obvious question – why can’t they keep up a title challenge? The answer for a time was the move to the Emirates but that excuse has grown tired and a little outdated. Another is that they lack “spine,” and even as they have certainly shown more of that this season, they still have too often fallen prey to proving that accusation. Third is that they can’t compete financially with the sides around them, but they have made some fine signings over the past three years, resulting in those two FA Cup wins, two Community Shields and a decent title challenge last season. In the end, some bizarre choices from the manager with starters and subs, continued injury troubles that have plagued them for years, failing to give chances to hungry players from the bench and an inability, for whatever reason, to keep his side at top mental and physical form throughout a campaign, all point to the reason the second half of Wenger’s run with the Gunners has been substantially less prolific than the first. Given all these factors, it appears this really should be his final season in charge. Given a young guy like Howe a chance to move up, or find one of the many top managers around the world the chance to step in and rejuvenate the side. The Frenchman will be missed, but it appears that, like the Gunner’s title aspirations, he has hit a wall he can no longer traverse.  

4. Around the Horn: the ridiculously congested holiday schedule this year meant that plenty of teams had to play twice in little over 48 hours, including Arsenal today. They appeared to be dragging for much of the game and one wonders if that contributed to the vital dropped two points. Chelsea, the leaders, have the most forgiving schedule among the top sides, with a nice gap from Saturday to Wednesday to heal before their key matchup with Tottenham. Arsenal now find themselves in a must-win series of three games, after their FA Cup matchup with Preston.

In a battle of two sides that have recently “relieved” their managers of their jobs, Swansea was able to come out on top with a vital 2-1 win over Crystal Palace that, coupled with other results, pushed them within a point (really two given their awful -22 goal difference) of safety. The losers now appear in real trouble and could well find themselves relegated this season. Sunderland moved closer to jumping above the drop themselves able to snatch a 2-2 draw with a Liverpool side that largely dominated them. The grit and determination in that game showed the old David Moyes people loved from his days at Everton and might just be enough to keep them up, especially if Jermain Defoe keeps defying father time.

Speaking of the Meyerside, Everton are finally starting to play like the side some expected to see with Koeman at the helm, though consistency continues to be spotty. After an awful 1-1 draw with Swansea and 1-0 loss to his old side Southampton, the Toffees salvaged a point against United (1-1), lost a corker to Watford 3-2, pulled off a comeback to beat Arsenal 2-1, lost a tough one late 1-0 to Liverpool, beat Leicester 2-0, drew 2-2 with Hull and then cruised to a 3-0 victory over that same Southampton in the return fixture. The odd thing about the side, now up to seventh after floating around the lower half of the table for a couple of months, is they seem to play better against the top teams than those at the bottom … which sounds a little like another team you might know.

Across to Manchester, the two sides are winning but in very different ways. United, after being gifted a 2-0 win over West Ham yesterday by the maligned Mike Dean (who is doing his best to win worst referee of the season with a spurious red card to go with several other spurious red cards and penalties this season and then allowing his side judge to ignore one of the most obvious offside you will ever see) have now won 6 straight in the league (and 7 straight in total, and are undefeated in their past 13) to push closer to a Top 4 finish. Mourinho has quietly righted the ship and pushed the side to their longest win streak since Fergie last won the league almost four years ago.

On the other side of Manchester, another manager in his first season with the club is about as unhappy as anyone could possibly be winning four of his last five games after a pretty abject stretch. That one loss, to Liverpool 1-0 smarts, but is the style of play that has Guardiola up in arms. After the win yesterday, the Spaniard gave one of his more bizarre set of interviews in memory and then claimed he might quit managing in the relatively near future.

With one game left to go before we settle into a more reasonable set of fixtures, at least until the Champions and European League resume in a couple of months, it appears that Chelsea is creeping toward what could be an insurmountable lead. Don’t count out the chasers yet, though, as City were the favorites before a game was played – and after they started life so brightly under their now irked leader – then Liverpool seemed to be on high, there was a little stretch where people actually took Arsenal seriously and even United had its share of advocates. I think it is shaping up as a two-horse race, with Liverpool certainly capable of catching Chelsea if they slip up at all, while City and Arsenal are still very outside shots.

Looking at the table overall, we might be seeing the restoration of the established order in England, with the two interlopers, City and Tottenham, starting to solidify their credentials as Top table teams into the foreseeable feature. However, given how tight it is below Chelsea, with five points separating second place Liverpool from sixth place United, the battle for the Top 4 is shaping up as one of the best in recent memory. It is another nine points to seventh, where Everton currently reside, a point above a surprisingly sprightly West Broom. At the other end, Hull looks certain for the drop, Sunderland will again probably struggle near the bottom of the table, Swansea are still a decent bet to be relegated and, amazingly, Leicester are still in a relegation battle, alongside Crystal, Middlesboro, Watford and West Ham.

My bold prediction for the end of the season is Chelsea wins the title, Liverpool, City and Arsenal complete the Top 4 and Crystal, Swansea and Middlesboro drop.

Arsenal Snatch Three Points Late (1-0 over West Brom)

Arsenal needed three points badly and they got them … just. For 86 minutes, with almost 80 percent possession and a couple dozen shots, Arsenal were staring at two more dropped points on the back of the last six on the offing. But then Giroud, in his first league start of the season, received a pinpoint cross from Ozil and was finally able to crack a well-organized and resilient West Brom defense, his lofted header ballooning over man of the match Forster. Three thoughts on the game:

1. Giroud Scores When He Plays: it took a while … a long while in the specter of a football match … but Giroud finally made one of the 26 shots in total (and 11 on target) Arsenal manufactured against Tony Pulis’ West Brom count. It was an absolutely essential three points for Arsenal to stay in the title race, particularly as those around them all earned maximum points, with only Tottenham yet to play this round of fixtures. Giroud has now scored 14 in his last 16 for club and country, an impressive run for any striker not named Messi or Ronaldo. And he has chipped in with key goals in a number of games already – the 89^th minute header to snatch a point at United, the opener against PSG in the ultimate 2-2 draw, the equalizer against Ludogorets in a 3-2 come-from-behind win and now an essential winner at the Emirates.

The question some may ask is whether this means he should find his way back into the starting lineup. The answer to me is a resounding no. Giroud certainly has a winner’s mentality and has scored goals wherever he has gone, but though the winner was a brilliantly taken header that was only possible as a result of his strength, he also missed two quality chances earlier to give his side the lead and slowed down the entire side with his lack of pace. Arsenal are a substantially more deliberative side when Giroud is on the pitch and his lack of pace smarted for long stretches, particularly on the few occasions when West Brom forged forward.

It was not that Arsenal didn’t have chances, but the dynamism of their attack truncates with Giroud, rather than Sanchez, through the middle. It did improve for a short spell in the second half and a more frenetic last 15, with Ramsey and Perez adding some zip to the attack, but the entire side seems more ponderous when they have a fulcrum of attack who cannot get behind the lines. With some combination of Walcott, Ox, Iwobi or Sanchez on the wings, Arsenal can use Giroud as a central distributor, but that does not work against sides like West Brom who sit back in banks of five.

The most prosperous line of attack with Giroud in the middle is for Bellerin to get overlapping runs down the right-hand side or Gibbs/Monreal on the other and put it crosses, but the quality Monday were well below par and Sanchez and Ozil were not able to navigate around West Brom’s stout defense much better. Chances came and went, but Giroud was not heavily involved in many of them and it is clear the attack is better in his absence.

Given these realities, it appears, at least for now, Giroud’s role should be to play in cup ties and come on as an impact sub in second halves of games that are still in the balance. Whether he will accept that role beyond this campaign is still to be seen, and his only route back to the starting 11 appears to be if, god forbid, Sanchez gets hurt or leaves next summer in search of more money and trophies.

2. A Clean Sheet … Are You Sure? Petr Cech is among the greatest goalkeepers in the history of the Premier League, and yet he had only been able to keep three clean sheets heading into the game Monday. His fourth came after a nine-game wait for the side, a disappointing 0-0 draw with Middlesboro. It has not that there has been a major drop-off in his form, though there have been a few instances where he missed a save or two he probably would have secured in the past, but a more porous Arsenal defense, particularly in the absence of standout transfer Mustafi at centreback.

Earlier in the season, Arsenal had a run of four straight clean sheets, beating Nottingham Forest 4-0 in the League Cup, Chelsea 3-0 in the league, Basel 2-0 in the Champions League and Burnley 1-0 back in the EPL. After a heart-pounding 3-2 victory over Swansea, they pulled off three more (against Ludogorets in the UCL, Boro in the EPL and Reading in the League Cup). Not a bad run, of clean sheet in 7 of 8 games, even if the competition might have been a level below the best. Since then, however, Arsenal’s defense has gotten considerably leakier. They allowed a side bereft of goals, Sunderland, to get one past them, had to come back to beat Ludogorets 3-2 after gifting them an early 2-0 lead, gave up a lead to Tottenham (1-1 draw in the end), were lucky to get a point at United (1-1), ceded another lead at PSG (2-2) then gave up at least a goal in their next five (with the worst result seeing them booted out of the League Cup 2-0 by Southampton). That was followed, of course, by ceding 1-0 leads in two straight, dropping six points that could have kept them within a whisker of the leaders Chelsea. Instead, their lack of defensive nous, particularly in the absence of Mustafi (who is still undefeated when he starts), has cost them dearly and they now stand 9 points behind the breakout leaders. They will need more clean sheets down the second half stretch if they are to overcome that deficit.

3. Master Class by Forster Falls Short: Fraser Forster is among the best goalkeepers in England, though playing for West Brom sometimes leads others to forget this. He reminded them Monday with a stunning string of saves before Giroud was able to beat him with a precise header that sailed over his 6’7” frame and then plopped down into the net for the winner. Before that, he put together 10 saves, some of them quite spectacular to keep the Gunners at bay. They included quick reflexes (with his hands and feet), the ability to stretch wide, to get out quickly and to recover (on two double saves). Sanchez did hit the woodwork in the second half after a poorly defended corner, but Forster came close to pulling off another clean sheet, which would have been, rather surprisingly, only his fourth of the campaign in all competitions.

It is clear that Pulis has a keeper keeper at the moment, though, and that England might want to consider starting him in the future. Nonetheless, West Brom, though struggling against the top sides, continues to impress with their current position at 9^th in the table, only three points from 7^th. Should they start dreaming of a European place? While it might be a step too far, they remain in the conversation for now.